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July 7-11, 2008

Toups

By Toups
in Ratings Archive

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MarkH Newbie

MarkH

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Yes, they are random...or at least due to forces unrelated to the shows.

A good parallel right now is gas prices. They have moved in a steadily upward direction (the opposite of soaps), and their current (national, US) mean is about $4.00 (give or take).

But then a wide variety of forces (not all random, but local/specific/one-time) cause those prices to fluctuate. Sometimes, they are $3.81, sometimes they are $4.25. It really depends on lots of factors.

Now, let's say you need a good idea of gas prices for PLANNING PURPOSES. For example, how much should you budget for gas? You can't do anything with that fluctuation information, because that just introduces uncertainty.

So, what you try to do is figure out the current value of the moving average (say $4) and plan for that. If the price fluctuates between $3.81 and $4.25, you can cope, because your current-average is a decent estimate. Now, if tomorrow the price goes to $4.50, your estimate is way bad. Even then, if it stays at $4.50 for one day, and then goes back to $4.18...well, it's a shock but not a meaningful one. But, if it goes to $4.50 and then starts to stay between $4.40 and $4.60...you know your moving average has shifted...and it is time to revise your budget projections.

So, in this case, there are two values that are informative: The average (the usual price of gas) and the maximum (the most you have to be prepared to spend).

How does this translate to soaps? Well, first, the week-to-week fluctuations are "random"...or at least due to local and basically non-systematic factors that we can't use to explain future ratings. Second, if you're a network or an advertiser, what you want to know is (a) the new value of the moving average, and (B) the new value of the MINIMUM...the smallest number of viewers you can count on to see an ad.

So, if I were an advertiser making plans, I would first ask "What have the ratings been for this quarter?" and "What have the maxima and minima been?" Those would give me a sense of how many eyeballs I'm delivering. As an advertiser, I would NEVER care about the weekly or daily ratings...they are too unreliable. (Except...ratings seem to be higher on Tuesday and Wednesday--week after week--so I might pay attention to that in terms of "best days to advertise").

That is why I pay particular attention to Toups' flags "new low" and especially "ties low". Because when a show ties its' low for several weeks, that tells me the average...and certainly the "envelope of fluctuation" has trended down again.

In the last few weeks, two examples are germane: Y&R seems to be holding at that 3.5 average. This week it might have been up .1, last week down .1...but basically the new HH for that show is 3.5 (and, per the Jack Peyton axiom, it will NEVER come back).

The other germane example is GL. Now, GL is interesting because (a) it hit a new low; (B) it maintained that low for two weeks running, and © it kept that low EVEN WHEN every other show bounced up.

So, now my eye is on GL...unless they show fluctuations back up in the next few weeks, I'll start to assume that GL has hit its new lower plateau on the moving average.

I'm sorry, folks, when I go on like this. It is an obsession and I seem unable to control my fingers.

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cct Newbie

cct

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MarkH, that was a brilliant explanation. Nice analogy with the gas prices. I don't mind if you go on and on about this, as I'm occasionally obsessed too. So, please, go on and on...

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Babygurl Newbie

Babygurl

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Thanks SoapSuds for the quick recap of Mondays and Thursdays show. I was on vacation and always like to know which stories are featured on the highest days. I thought Emily and Casey were on Friday too. I guess Friday was a doozy. Who was featured by chance?

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Babygurl Newbie

Babygurl

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Thanks SoapSuds for the quick recap of Mondays and Thursdays show. I was on vacation and always like to know which stories are featured on the highest days. I thought Emily and Casey were on Friday too. I guess Friday was a doozy. Who was featured by chance?

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Soapsuds Grand Master

Soapsuds

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Here is a recap of Friday's show. I didnt think it was that good.

Friday, July 11, 2008

After Parker rides his bike away from her, Liberty complains to Brad and Katie that Parker's ignoring her because Jack and Janet are now "hooking up." When Brad reacts in anger, Katie asks why he's so upset. He convinces her to let him confront his brother and while he runs off, Katie asks Liberty about her relationship with Parker. Brad angrily pulls Jack out of the diner and lashes out at him for sleeping with Janet. When Jack asks Janet if she told Liberty they were sleeping together, she lies that she didn't. Back at home, Katie and Brad decide that it would be best if Janet leaves town. They confront her at the diner and hint that her sleeping with Jack is not a good example for Liberty. She argues with them until Brad states that they are no longer going to pay for her room at the Lakeview. When a pouting Janet calls, looking for Liberty, Jack hears what happened and invites her to come stay out at the farm. Liberty confronts Parker in his room and convinces him not to let their parents' decisions affect their relationship. Holden urges Carly to cancel tonight's dinner with Neal. She refuses and explains that while she would rather be with him, she won't let him throw away his marriage. Neal arrives for their date but senses that she's not in the mood to be with him. She stops him from leaving and they head to the dinner. There, a jealous Holden makes rude comments to Neal about his polo ponies in Argentina which embarrass Lily and Carly. Carly suddenly comes up with an excuse to leave. Holden tells Lily that he was stressed out. She insists he find Neal and apologize. Neal guesses to Carly that Holden was acting jealous. Holden arrives at Metro and is upset to hear that Neal has invited her to come to Paris with him for 2 weeks.

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