Holy shít.

Some background: The very accurate Iowa Selzer poll has been highly predictive in recent years re: midwest voting across the country. A good result for Trump would be anything from +10 to +15. A good result for Harris or any Democrat would be only being behind anywhere 1 to 8 points. Harris being up in Iowa was considered unlikely.

This is the final Selzer poll of 2024, released 4 minutes ago.

 

^ I can't believe we are so close to having our first woman (of color) president, but if we don't we end up with Trump again. American society 2024 is wild. I'm pretty hopeful coming down to the wire. Also, until the last few weeks I had no idea so many women were still afraid to vote against their husband's wishes. 

 

5 minutes ago, Juliajms2 said:

^ I can't believe we are so close to having our first woman (of color) president, but if we don't we end up with Trump again. American society 2024 is wild. I'm pretty hopeful coming down to the wire. Also, until the last few weeks I had no idea so many women were still afraid to vote against their husband's wishes. 

I was fairly confident before this, but this is a result absolutely no one expected.

Silver seethes:

6 hours ago, Vee said:

The big donors didn't want her but got outplayed by Biden and the public and didn't get their way.

Exactly.  Nor did they get their way, I think, when Josh Shapiro was passed over for VP.  Tim Walz has proven himself to be very popular with the base, but Shapiro's probably more their ideal running mate.

For me, however, the question remains: if the top donors didn't want Kamala Harris, then whom DID they want?  Who else had a high enough profile within the Democratic Party to run against Trump?

Just now, Khan said:

For me, however, the question remains: if the top donors didn't want Kamala Harris, then whom DID they want?  Who else had a high enough profile within the Democratic Party to run against Trump?

Pick a white guy. Probably Newsom or Shapiro.

5 minutes ago, Vee said:

Pick a white guy. Probably Newsom or Shapiro.

And in both cases, Trump would have handed the Democratic Party its' collective asses, because there's no way either of those gents (or any other white guy) could've run against him and won. 

We were behind Joe Biden until we weren't, largely because of the goodwill he had engendered in the wake of the pandemic; and even though I'll remain pissed over how he was forced out until the day I shuck off this mortal coil, at the same time, I will concede that Kamala Harris' ability to pull together a campaign and party in record time proves how very much this country was eager for another change.

2 minutes ago, Khan said:

We were behind Joe Biden until we weren't, largely because of the goodwill he had engendered in the wake of the pandemic; and even though I'll remain pissed over how he was forced out until the day I shuck off this mortal coil, at the same time, I will concede that Kamala Harris' ability to pull together a campaign and party in record time proves how very much this country was eager for another change.

I will talk about the Joe thing more when this is over. Maybe he could've done it, maybe not. Doesn't mean I am any happier with how it happened than anyone else. It was shameful how it went down. But I'm very happy with where we are atm.

What the crisis this summer reminded me of, though, was that Joe was haunted by not running in '16 when the party (and Obama) told him not to. He believed he could have beaten Trump then. I think he was right. Imagine that world.

Martin takes a break from showing up on the Sunday shows drunk and sullen about Kamala to throw this out there, and he's right:

 

24 minutes ago, Vee said:

What the crisis this summer reminded me of, though, was that Joe was haunted by not running in '16 when the party (and Obama) told him not to. He believed he could have beaten Trump then. I think he was right. 

I think he was right, too.  If nothing else, Joe Biden would not have been as vulnerable to the far-left as Hillary Clinton was.  I mean, they tried their best to hurt him four years later, and they're trying their best to hurt Kamala Harris now.  In the long run, however, it seems like little-to-none of what they did or are doing is making the kind of impact that they had made on HRC back in '16, when you had a candidate who was a sort-of pariah even among members of her own party.

24 minutes ago, Vee said:

Martin takes a break from showing up on the Sunday shows drunk and sullen about Kamala to throw this out there, and he's right:

 

Despite the GOP's best efforts, this election comes down to one issue: the abortion ban.  By reversing Roe, the GOP, with help from SCOTUS, went too far, underestimating women in the process.  Now, I'm not suggesting that Kamala Harris WILL win, but if she DOES win, make no mistake: "it's the abortion ban, stupid."

Edited November 3, 20241 yr by Khan

 

 

It's interesting that Harris is leading so much with senior women. Those folks remember what it's like not to be able to have a credit card in your own name. What it means to go to the back alley or Mexico for an abortion too. Oh, and they vote.

We'll never know if Biden would have won. Choosing Kamala was the dirtiest thing I remember the Democrats ever doing. We'll never know if it had to be done. I do think we had to pull out every stop to try to beat 45. As much as many of us disdain the people who worked for Trump last time, some of them said "no" when it came to it. This time he'll have his yes men in place and there will be far fewer people surrounding him who even want to say no.

 

Just now, Juliajms2 said:

It's interesting that Harris is leading so much with senior women. Those folks remember what it's like not to be able to have a credit card in your own name. What it means to go to the back alley or Mexico for an abortion too. Oh, and they vote.

It doesn't surprise me. My mother had to go down to Tijuana and remembers every moment.

I happen to think Dobbs but also the Puerto Rico mess and Michelle Obama's key statement to women (your husband doesn't need to know your vote) have been essential this cycle.

He really does seem defeated here lol: