http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6601858.html

No longer a fortress against time-shifting

By Paige Albiniak -- Broadcasting & Cable, 10/6/2008

For the past few years, the Syndicated Network Television Association (SNTA) has been pitching advertisers that day-and-date syndicated programs hold on to more of their viewers because people continue to watch in traditional ways: when they are scheduled and without skipping commercials.

But like everything else in television, that's changing.

According to a study of 800 daytime television viewers age 18 through 54 by New York-based Frank N. Magid Associates, 25%-50% of the audience of any given daytime show is being time shifted onto digital video recorders (DVRs). More than one-third of the people surveyed had DVRs, while one in five said they were planning to get one. The survey looked at 25 daytime shows, including all the network soap operas, seven court shows and eight talk shows.

What's more, DVR viewing of shows from other dayparts—watching primetime premieres in the afternoon, for example—is beginning to compete with real-time daytime viewing. “People are really starting to use DVRs to shift into the daypart,” says Dan Wilch, senior VP, consulting, at Frank N. Magid Associates. “If Desperate Housewives was on last night, I've got my Desperate Housewives on during the day.”

And the number of DVR homes is growing, says SNTA. According to Nielsen, 23% of homes have a DVR, and it's even higher among adults 18 to 49, jumping to 29%. Media buying agency Magna Global projects that by 2010—only one broadcast season away—32.5% of all households will have a DVR.

“I would tend to agree that historically syndicated shows are less recorded and that syndication is lagging behind primetime in terms of vulnerability,” Wilch says. “But we've all got our heads in the sand if we think that's going to continue.”

In September, SNTA released a study that said 85% of syndicated shows still are watched live versus 60% of network primetime. Perhaps more importantly, viewers of syndicated shows watch more than 70% of the commercials during playback. Comparatively, viewers who record network primetime programs skip 60% of the advertising, reports SNTA.

But DVRs don't distinguish dayparts, so all television is the same to a TiVo: “The bigger issue is that DVR viewing starts to eat away at two things: loyalty to a program and how it becomes part of people's daily habit,” Wilch says.

DVRs aren't the only innovation that's changing the way people spend their time. Magid has been conducting this study of the daytime landscape for several years, and this is the first time the firm has found that people are spending more of their spare time surfing the Web than they are watching television.

“In the short term—the next three to five years—the people who are going to be the most reachable and watch TV the way they used to tend to be older and more downscale viewers,” Wilch says. “Over the long term, the bigger dilemma is that the DVR and the infiltration of other media are really eating away at the way people watch television.”

The study did turn up some good news. In terms of content, daytime viewers seem to be looking for light, fun fare and finding it in Warner Bros.' The Ellen DeGeneres Show, the season premiere of which was up 16% over last year's.

Says Wilch: “We asked people who had sampled each of the 25 different programs we looked at, and Ellen DeGeneres surpassed all other programs. We haven't seen anyone surpass all other programs in the history of doing this survey. It speaks to the enthusiasm of those who watch her. Often, it's predictive of where a show's ratings are going to go. If a show offered the information of Oprah and the fun of Ellen, that show would hit a home run.”

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6601858.html

Fascinating! It only goes to show that the future is OFF television, in a classic way. Business models need to shift to habits that are on-demand, and often internet-delivered.

I very much like the low-clutter ads on online streaming programs...ads that CANNOT be avoided easily. Also, the streaming shows are often housed in an 'envelope' that also includes a persistent ad.

The question is whether next-generation DVR-delievered on-demand shows can use a similar "mandatory ad' format (or a for-pay option for those who wish to avoid ads). I think that is the future.

I dislike the ads on streaming content. I watch EoN at aolvideo and to be honest I would rather pay a nominal fee than constantly being subjected to Geiko ads or whatever. But anyway, the way the networks measure viewers is woefully outdated. Even their timeframe to measure views on DVR is unrealistic. I watch DOOL and sometimes save up 10 episodes to watch in one sitting. I have movies saved in my DVR for months queued up, and theoretically they are not counting me.

I don't know why SoapNet hasn't reserved a Soaps On Demand channel on cable. To be able to to SoapsOnDemand and watch Monday's, Tuesday's, Wednesday's, etc episode of OLTL and then slide over to the Y&R column and pick up last Friday's episode would be SO convenient and I would think the On Demand stations should be able to track views and selections EASIER because it's all our button selections per-episode. On Demand doesn't really have ads, though, but if you go like HBO or Showtime as a premium channel that you have to pay for, they can all get their piece of the pie that way.

Options to watch any number of Soapography episodes, Night Shift, four or five Sunday Night Movie selections, or even those fall premiere catch-up episode things they were doing this season, and you have a GREAT On Demand channel.

I think it would stand to reason that those who subscribe to the On Demand SoapNet would still be viewers of the regular SoapNet channel, but this would be a backup to the backup in terms of catching up on soaps, if you can only sit down to watch on a Sunday morning, when all SoapNet wants to play is Beverly Hills 90210 and One Tree Hill.

I don't have DVR, but subscribe to OnDemand for HBO, Cinemax, Showtime, and HereTV. I don't always tune into those channels, but I pay monthly for the option to have them to fit MY busy schedule. Shouldn't soaps jump on that bandwagon? It would also put the soap viewing back in the hands of viewers, while SoapNet continues to erode its schedule with non-soap programming.

I watch 3 soaps. I DVR AMC and OLTL and watch B&B online

I DVR everything Days and watch on the weekend or when I have time. I also DVR primetime and watch on the weekends. If all else fails, I watch on line.

i use my dvr for EVERYTHING.

I refuse to watch live TV when ic an DVR it, and watch it later and pause, stop, etc. Its much better.

i use my dvr for EVERYTHING.

I refuse to watch live TV when ic an DVR it, and watch it later and pause, stop, etc. Its much better.

Amen.

I watch ZERO live except for CNN and stuff. I'm not at home when most of things which interest are on and I refuse to watch commercials. Most of all, I can watch my shows WHEN I WANT. You don't need on-demand for that, just a good DVR.

I dislike the ads on streaming content. I watch EoN at aolvideo and to be honest I would rather pay a nominal fee than constantly being subjected to Geiko ads or whatever. But anyway, the way the networks measure viewers is woefully outdated. Even their timeframe to measure views on DVR is unrealistic. I watch DOOL and sometimes save up 10 episodes to watch in one sitting. I have movies saved in my DVR for months queued up, and theoretically they are not counting me.

quartermaine, I am watching EoN on Trueveo...no ads. Although truthfully, I'm not as bothered when it's one 30-second commercial every ten minutes or so as it is when there's a slew of them every five (think Oprah). You would think researchers would look into this. It's far easier to remember that one commercial for Geico than to remember all five that aired in between episode acts. Ads used to be almost a whole minute, but now they are down to 15 seconds.

I have DVRed everything for the past three years. When people ask if I've seen the commercial where...I have to stop them, because I don't watch commercials.

Product placement is also the wave of the future. Not in an embarassingly Campell's Go Red Fashion Show way where Babe is propping the essential vitamins and minerals in a can of chicken noodle, but in an Ugly Betty Amanda Opens a Drawer full of Healthy Choice Dinners and Says Not Another Word kind of way.

I am guessing SoapNet doesn't have the rights to put the shows on demand for at least DAYS and Y&R.

I dislike the ads on streaming content. I watch EoN at aolvideo and to be honest I would rather pay a nominal fee than constantly being subjected to Geiko ads or whatever. But anyway, the way the networks measure viewers is woefully outdated. Even their timeframe to measure views on DVR is unrealistic. I watch DOOL and sometimes save up 10 episodes to watch in one sitting. I have movies saved in my DVR for months queued up, and theoretically they are not counting me.

Are you a Nielsen viewer? If you aren't you are not counted anyway.