Will the economic downturn finally be the death of soaps?

[JaneAusten]

With the economy on the fritz will this signal a continued transition to less costly television - more talk shows, game shows, news shows, and reality shows? We have seen the cancellation of several shows on ABC primetime, none of which were horrible ratingswise(although not great), what's next? We have also seen Days get rid of major stars, both Days and ABC undergo pay cuts, what could be next?

Articles I have read in USA Today, local newspapers all covered the firing of Deidra and Drake discussing the end of soaps and how ad rates for all of television are down and that this could be the final nail in the coffin for soaps. Could inexpensive TV like reality tv and talk shows continue to replace shows on primetime that get cancelled make their move to daytime? Why does ABC continue to focus on how wonderful The View's ratings have been while not focusing on how improved 2 of their 3 soaps have been? Why did CBS do nothing to promote sweeps at all?

It's sad to see an era potentially coming to an end sooner rather than later. Is it possible people might gravitate back to soaps?

[nicknack]

Who says it couldn't be the other way around. People are depressed and feel drawn back to the homeliness of soaps for comfort.

[JaneAusten]

It would be great to see soaps use this as an opportunity to get back those lapsed viewers by returning to what's familiar and gives comfort to those viewers during these tough times.. Focusing on family and history could be the ticket. Maybe Y&R's recent foray back to the classic soap and OLTL's improvements will signal a turn back. I hope so.

But I was also a big fan of sitcoms and am hoping this might mean more lighthearted entertainment as well.

[Jonathan]

I hope not. I'm hoping the soap industry will be revived. Maybe the upcoming Dark Shadows movie will do that?!?! But then again, I could see any success the movie having will translate into primetime TV and not daytime. Ugh.

[Kstaff]

OT... I must be totally out of the loop. A Dark Shadows movie?????? I could be in heaven, unless it turns out to be like the Dark Shadows TV remake 20 or so years ago.

Back on topic, I just think the economy is affecting more than daytime. Reality TV was already becoming rampant, in part because it's cheaper to make. I just don't know what to think.

[marceline]

I don't see it happening. There's too many other options. The people I've known who, for whatever reason, went through a period of being home during the day didn't start watching soaps. They started watching reruns of L&O and ER on TNT. By rerunning primetime shows in the daytime, these networks can give their viewers a daily viewing experience like soaps but with primetime production values at a fraction of the price. One of my friends tried getting into Y&R but started watching Gilmore Girls reruns on the picture-in-picture. Guess which show won out?

The concept that people will return to soaps assumes that a.) soaps still have something unique to offer and b.) that the "normal" viewer is interested in that something. I don't believe that's the case.

[MarkH]

The few times I have been at the gym during the workday [mostly I work ], it has been loaded in seniors. Target soap audience, right? Nah...they're all on Discovery and HGTV and cable (not so much fiction, from what I can tell).

Soaps are NOT "comfort food". You know, Rosie O'Donnell was speculating that her variety show was going to do well (it got LOADS of promotion) because it was depression-era "comfort food". Well, it tanked.

The old rules no longer apply. I don't know WHAT comfort food is nowadays...but I'm guessing it is "Flip that House" or something .

Or World of Warcraft. Or whatever. Not soaps.

You know, I put up that chart once that used linear extrapolation to predict the end of soaps. What I did was use the current annual HH ratings loss, and I predicted that each show would be gone when its' HH rating hit 1.0. Based on that, I predicted the following death rates (around June 21 of this year):

2010 - GL

2011 - Days, ATWT, AMC, OLTL

2012 - GH

2013 - B&B

2016 - Y&R

Now, that was pure fantasy, because so many of the assumptions were likely bogus (like decline would continue to be bogus, like networks would hold on as long as a 1.0 HH, and that some soaps would survive after others died...for example, if ABC cancelled AMC/OLTL, I have a hard time believing they would hold on to GH...how would their daypart have any cross promotion potential?)

But, in light of the last week's news (GL lost 30% of viewers thus far in 2008, and 21% of the desirable demo; Days 40% cut and loss of stars and only 18 month renewal; ABC 50% cuts), these dates are seeming more and more plausible, aren't they?

Now I feel like we need to start a betting pool :-). Except who would bet on their survival?

[marceline]

What you are talking about is a soap version of a "dead pool"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_pool

Which forum would be most appropriate for a dead pool thread anyway?

[MarkH]

Figures you'd throw down for one of these right away

[marceline]

My French is bad but I believe the saying is "Enterrez les mortes et fermez la porte."

Bury the dead and close the door.

[Kstaff]

You make a very good point. I watch those primetime reruns frequently when I'm home from work. Sometimes, I don't even worry about the soaps. Plus, with all the cable options, soaps have a ton of competition, even from the cable network that is supposedly supposed to be about soaps.

[MarkH]

Ah, but that channels Monty Python for me:

[marceline]

*Sinks to one knee *

MarkH, I would be forever grateful if you would do me the honor of becoming my husband.

[JaneAusten]

It's funny you say this because I for one did not get hooked onto Law and Order until A&E started running reruns on that station. I started watching and got interested based on that and started watching L&O on NBC. That helped increase the show's viewing audience I am positive. I think NCIS on CBS which airs re-runs on USA now(which has turned out to be huge for USA) has had the same luck. My dad who was undergoing chemo for 8 weeks got hooked on ER years back from watching the re-runs on TNT.

My niece a junior at Ohio State university, said that most of the students don't watch soaps in her dorm, mostly during their free time they are on their computers browsing the internet or tuned into ESPN and believe it or not the cable new stations like MSNBC, Fox, and CNN.

I find it sad and still believe network execs belief that they needed to pander to the 18-34 demo and sending the message they don't care about the older viewers was the real soap killer. Maybe I'm all wet on that.

I'm just hoping shows like Y&R can maintain their audience to some extent now with the improved writing and here's to hoping they do. I just wonder with advertisers cutting costs(the big 3 auto companies at one time were big advertisers on soaps), it has to impact daytime. It's impacting primetime so there is no way daytime is not affected. I just hope we don't get 7 more versions of GL on daytime. That would be worse then letting the shows end in a dignified manner.

[MarkH]

Tom Casiello is channeling Douglas Marland's famous rules by creating some of his own. And his rules (he calls them "myths" he is "busting") agree with yours.

The first is the "Teen Story Myth", and concludes

The second is "The Quick Cut Myth", and says scenes are often too short (in the service of building suspense and motivation for presumed short attention spans) to allow for emotional depths to be plumbed.

Three more myths-to-bust are coming this week...before the lucky dude goes to Key West! For an unemployed writer, he sure travels enviably . I miss him when he is away.

Increasingly, Tom and Sara Bibel, IMO, have been real voices of sanity, experience, wisdom. From their experienced perspective, they often validate and elaborate on observations that other fans have also made in places like SON and elsewhere. I really wish the genre were in a place where it would listen to them.