It looks like Mark Warner, one of the senators who hides behind Manchin, is already blaming a possible gubernatorial loss in VA on progressives not passing the bill, so I have a feeling we've got a lot more can-kicking in store.
If Macauliffe does lose, there are many reasons (a rusty campaign, hysteria over "save the children from liberal brainwashing," the inaction and decay of the Democratic Congress, a media that worships his opponent - who fulfills the hatred of women and queer people that they crave and also their never-ending daddy issues), but I'm never going to forget the crass, stupid publicity stunt from the Lincoln Project people. These types of things only work when they are done to benefit Republicans, because there are zero standards for the GOP. They want us to die, and the media praises them for their bravery and clarity.