Screen Actors Guild Awards Nominations

[Adam]

I have not see The Reader yet, plan to before the ceremony when it comes to the indie theatre house here in town, but I did see Revolutionary Road and thought Kate was great in the film, however certainly not a defining role.... I mean I think it could have been played equally good by several other actresses.....

I am worried that Kate will once again get the shaft here.... Meryl's win certainly does complicate things... I figured it would go to Anne before Meryl....

If Kate does win, in my opinion it will be for a weaker role than her previous nominations. I still an pulling for Anne Hathaway though.... it be amazing if it was an upset. Can you just imagine her reaction?

[Y&RWorldTurner]

But Meryl was always predicted to win this award. Anne has lost some serious momentum in terms of the Oscar race, and it doesn't appear that it's building for her either. Again, we have to wait and see who wins at the BAFTA's. Kate is nominated twice for Lead Actress there, she may indeed split the vote and the award will go to Meryl, which would then make Meryl the clear frontrunner for the Oscar.

However, it Kate pulls off a win for Lead Actress at the BAFTA's for her role in The Reader, I predict the Oscar will be her's to lose.

The SAG's aren't the best predictor of the acting races at the Oscar's. Last year, the BAFTA's predicted correctly EVERY winner in the four acting races. Again, we must remember that the Brits make up a significant voting bloc within the academy, which means that whoever wins the BAFTA has a much better chance of winning the Oscar.

I think Hathaway is out of this race, it's now between Winslet and Street. While The Reader was a horribly executed film that doesn't live up to its hype, Kate's performance in it is nothing short of astounding. Doubt is another one that didn't live up to its hype, and it clearly wasn't Streep's best performance, but Streep has serious momentum going for her at this point.

Kate was always a Lead in The Reader and deserves to be in that category. It may not be Winslet's best role, but I'd go as far as to say she was better in the The Reader than Streep was in Doubt.

[Adam]

I love your posts in this thread. I consider myself a movie/oscar buff, but you really have a grasp on what goes on in the industry. All your posts make so much sense! I guess Hathaway is kind of out of the race. Hopefully its just the beginning for her though, however her follow up choice of Bride Wars kind of concerned me.

[bandbfan]

How does this "momentum" thing work? What about the times when somebody came from apparently no where to win? And if wins are due to momentum, then wouldn't that mean the Oscars (since it's last) is the least important since it would seemingly be swayed by all of these other awards? Or is momentum just referring to the fact that since somebody won one, they are more likely to win another just because of the win? If that is what is meant, aren't there many many cases of differences between the various awards?

[Y&RWorldTurner]

Usually who wins the most awards during award season, is favoured by the critics, the one who clearly has the most support from within the industry, etc...

Very rarely does that happen though. Even Crash's surprise win for Best Picture came after a surprise win for Ensemble at the SAG's, which clearly built on its momentum after that surprise SAG win. The biggest example of someone coming out of nowhere to win this decade is perhaps Adrienne Brody for The Pianist and even he was considered a dark horse for that award.

There's also times where the Academy doesn't actually look at who had the best performance of the year, and they seek to give some people "make up wins" for snubbing them in the past. Alan Arkin and Jessica Tandy are examples of this, though their Oscar wins are also perfectly understandable.

The Oscar's really aren't swayed by all these award shows. The Brits make up a voting bloc, producers make up a voting bloc, actors make up a voting bloc, directors make up a voting bloc, etc. It just so happens that the Brits, producers, actors, and directors have their award functions before the actual Oscar's. Also, it just so happens that many, a lot in fact, of people that belong to these specific regions of the entertainment industry are also voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Scienes.

That's partially it.

There's a lot of cases, but there's even more cases of similarities, I would say.

[bandbfan]

So the "momentum" to the Oscars, just refers to the odds that because someone has already one, they'll win again?

But in the case of the GG and SAGs...wouldn't a winner in either be just as likely to win in the Oscar? Streep won the SAG but Winslet won the GG, so neither would be more likely for the Oscar, except by looking at the history of indications of winners from the other awards?

I read something about momentum even before the GGs. What would that be referring to something other than just critic's opinions?

[Y&RWorldTurner]

Yes, but also who has the most hype within the industry in the various fields.

I really don't look at the GG's with much credibility, but they do have a decent track record of predicting Oscar winners. A winner of either award does have a better chance of winning the Oscar.

The Streep and Winslet situation is very different this year though. Kate won for Supporting for the same role she's nominated for in Lead at the Oscar's. If the SAG's didn't let the studios pick the placement of their actors in each category and Kate was up for Lead there for The Reader, who would've won? I can't say that Streep would've won had Kate been nominated for The Reader in the same category at the SAG's.

Right now, I'd say that Winslet and Streep are neck and neck and the BAFTA's will probably give the winner a biggest boost at the Oscar's.

Mostly the critics awards, if you noticed, most of the winners at the GG's and SAG's also won a lot of critics awards.

[juniorz1]

A LOT of the time, the actors who win SAGs are simply given them because they are NOT going to win Oscars. Just look at Johnny Depp's win for Pirates years ago, when clearly, the Oscar was going to go to Sean Penn or Bill Murray. I wouldn't give the SAG winners a lot of weight when it comes to predicting the Oscars.

Oh no way are they neck & neck. Winslet is a lock for best actress- that race is over, moreso than in any other category.

[Y&RWorldTurner]

Well, it certainly helped Halle Berry when Sissy Spacek was winning all the other Lead actress awards that year. It certainly also helped Crash win Best Picture after winning the ensemble award in 2005 as well. The SAG's aren't the best predictor, but they do hold some weight.

As I've said numerous times in the thread, the BAFTA's are by far the best predictor of the Oscar races in the acting categories. Let's not forget that they predicted correctly every acting race last year. Who seriously thought that Tilda Swinton, for example, was a serious threat to win Supporting Actress last year until her BAFTA win?

I'm stilling waiting for the BAFTA's to call this category. Though, I do give Winslet the slight edge. Streep has her vocal supporters though and it's been over 25 years since her last Oscar win. If Kate loses this Oscar, I believe she'll tie the record for most Oscar losses, something I'm sure NO actor wants to do.

[juniorz1]

I you Y&RWorldTurner!

[bandbfan]

? Meryl has been nominated 11 or 12 times since winning. If she doesn't win this year, she'll have missed it 13/15 times.

Or are you just talking about people with no wins at all?

[juniorz1]

Yes, I'm pretty sure he means actors nominated and NEVER winning.

[Y&RWorldTurner]

I'm talking about people who've never won one at all.

The feeling is mutual.