I know that there is already a thread devoted to a discussion of the 2008 presidential election. However, because that thread solely deals with people's opinions on the issues and the candidates, I wanted to start a new thread that is simply devoted to an objective analysis of how McCain and Obama will do in the Electoral College. (If the moderators choose to lock this thread and ship this post over to the existing thread, I completely understand. However, I strongly feel this new thread is necessary because I don't want discussion regarding the Electoral College to get lost in the shuffle of the very large thread that currently exists.)

Most of you are familiar with the Electoral College: Presidents are not elected on the basis as to which candidates win the most total votes. (And, if you believe the rules should be changed to reflect this, this thread is the place to discuss you opinions on this matter.) Rather, electoral votes are awarded for each state where a candidate gets the most votes. Currently, the winning candidate must accumulate at least 270 electoral votes (out of a possible total of 538).

Below is a list of how many electoral votes each state has. However, rather than just provide an alphabetical listing of the states, I have sorted them into five categories: Safe Obama, Lean Obama, True Toss-Up, Lean McCain, and Safe McCain. Note that the number of electoral votes a particular state has is in parentheses next to that state's name.

Safe Obama (186 electoral votes in total):

California (55)

Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)

District of Columbia (3)

Hawaii (4)

Illinois (21)

Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (12)

New Jersey (15)

New York (31)

Oregon (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)

Washington (11)

Lean Obama (62 electoral votes in total):

Maine (4)

Michigan (17)

Minnesota (10)

Pennsylvania (21)

Wisconsin (10)

True Toss-Up (74 electoral votes in total):

Colorado (9)

Iowa (7)

Missouri (11)

Nevada (5)

New Hampshire (4)

New Mexico (5)

Ohio (20)

Virginia (13)

Lean McCain (81 electoral votes in total):

Arizona (10)

Florida (27)

Georgia (15)

Indiana (11)

Montana (3)

North Carolina (15)

Safe McCain (135 electoral votes in total):

Alabama (9)

Alaska (3)

Arkansas (6)

Idaho (4)

Kansas (6)

Kentucky (8)

Louisiana (9)

Mississippi (6)

Nebraska (5)

North Dakota (3)

Oklahoma (7)

South Carolina (8)

South Dakota (3)

Tennessee (11)

Texas (34)

Utah (5)

West Virginia (5)

Wyoming (3)

For most of these states, the categories in which they belong are obvious. I had a tough time whether to place Georgia, Indiana, & North Carolina in the Safe McCain or Lean McCain categories; while I am 90% sure that McCain will carry these states, many experts (and polls) have suggested a somewhat close race in these states. Also, while many people condiser Florida as a toss-up, I put it in the Lean McCain category since (1) the state has been trending Republican in recent years and (2) Obama is doing considerably worse than most other Democrats when it comes to appealing to Jewish and Hispanic voters. Finally, most pundits would probably rate Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-ups. However, I could not disagree more with this assessment, since recent statewide elections show both states to be considerably Democratic.

If you add up the Safe and Lean Obama states, it totals 248 electoral votes; meanwhile the Safe and Lean McCain states total 216 electoral votes. (It should be noted that the Democrats carried all of the Safe & Lean Obama states in the past two elections, while the Republicans carried all of the Safe & Lean McCain states.) This, of course, means that the burden is on McCain to carry the lion's share of toss-up states.

Currently, I am not ready to make an exact prediction as to how many electoral votes each candidate will get on election day. However, this thread is the place for both me and you to make these predictions as the election nears. Also, free free to discuss how the presidential election is shaping up in every one of these states, and whether you agree with my assessment over which states are Safe Obama, Lean Obama, toss-ups, Lean McCain, or Safe McCain.

Edited August 31, 200817 yr by Max

One interesting comment about my deep red homestate of Kentucky......

In 2000, Bush beat Gore by 16 points (57% to 41%)

In 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 20 points (60% to 40%)

And the latests polls here have McCain with only a 9 point lead (51% to 42%)

I would love for Kentucky to go blue again, but I don't see that happening this year. However, at least the lead is currently in single digits here.

Looking purely at recent polls. All Obama has to do is win the Solid States and win the Leaning states and he is up 322-132 not including the toss-ups.

I think Obama is going to win. I think the United States is going to elect an African-American president. I do not even know what to say beyond that. It is so amazing to me.

How as of this moment I think it will shake out on November 4th:

Obama

California – 55

Colorado – 9

Connecticut – 7

D.C. – 3

Delaware – 3

Florida – 27

Hawaii – 4

Illinois – 21

Indiana – 11

Iowa – 7

Maine – 4

Maryland – 10

Massachusetts – 12

Michigan – 17

Minnesota – 10

Nevada – 5

New Mexico – 5

New Hampshire – 4

New Jersey – 15

New York – 31

Ohio – 20

Oregon – 7

Pennsylvania – 21

Rhode Island – 4

Vermont – 3

Washington – 11

Wisconsin – 10

Virginia – 13

TOTAL = 338

McCain

Alabama – 9

Alaska – 3

Arkansas – 6

Arizona – 10

Georgia – 15

Idaho – 4

Kansas – 6

Kentucky – 8

Louisiana – 9

Mississippi – 6

Missouri – 11

Montana – 3

Nebraska – 5

North Carolina – 15

North Dakota – 3

Oklahoma – 7

South Carolina – 8

South Dakota – 3

Tennessee – 11

Texas – 34

Utah – 5

West Virginia – 5

Wyoming – 3

TOTAL = 200

Edited November 3, 200817 yr by jcar03

Here' mine:

Obama

California – 55

Colorado – 9

Connecticut – 7

D.C. – 3

Delaware – 3

Hawaii – 4

Illinois – 21

Iowa – 7

Maine – 4

Maryland – 10

Massachusetts – 12

Michigan – 17

Minnesota – 10

Nevada – 5

New Mexico – 5

New Hampshire – 4

New Jersey – 15

New York – 31

Ohio – 20

Oregon – 7

Pennsylvania – 21

Rhode Island – 4

Vermont – 3

Washington – 11

Wisconsin – 10

Virginia – 13

TOTAL = 300

McCain

Alabama – 9

Alaska – 3

Arkansas – 6

Arizona – 10

Florida – 27

Georgia – 15

Idaho – 4

Indiana – 11

Kansas – 6

Kentucky – 8

Louisiana – 9

Mississippi – 6

Missouri – 11

Montana – 3

Nebraska – 5

North Carolina – 15

North Dakota – 3

Oklahoma – 7

South Carolina – 8

South Dakota – 3

Tennessee – 11

Texas – 34

Utah – 5

West Virginia – 5

Wyoming – 3

TOTAL = 238

Not that anybody has proposed this, but I don't see Obama winning Virginia and not winning Penn. It seems like CNN keeps playing with that scenario.