The margin of error in those Arizona polls is +/- 4% so he could be up 8%.

The fact that there is actual discussion on Arizona being a toss up state I think is pretty indicative of where McCain stands this weekend.... it isn't good.

One interesting comment about my deep red homestate of Kentucky......

In 2000, Bush beat Gore by 16 points (57% to 41%)

In 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 20 points (60% to 40%)

And the latests polls here have McCain with only a 9 point lead (51% to 42%)

I would love for Kentucky to go blue again, but I don't see that happening this year. However, at least the lead is currently in single digits here.

Looking purely at recent polls. All Obama has to do is win the Solid States and win the Leaning states and he is up 322-132 not including the toss-ups.

I think Obama is going to win. I think the United States is going to elect an African-American president. I do not even know what to say beyond that. It is so amazing to me.

How as of this moment I think it will shake out on November 4th:

Obama

California – 55

Colorado – 9

Connecticut – 7

D.C. – 3

Delaware – 3

Florida – 27

Hawaii – 4

Illinois – 21

Indiana – 11

Iowa – 7

Maine – 4

Maryland – 10

Massachusetts – 12

Michigan – 17

Minnesota – 10

Nevada – 5

New Mexico – 5

New Hampshire – 4

New Jersey – 15

New York – 31

Ohio – 20

Oregon – 7

Pennsylvania – 21

Rhode Island – 4

Vermont – 3

Washington – 11

Wisconsin – 10

Virginia – 13

TOTAL = 338

McCain

Alabama – 9

Alaska – 3

Arkansas – 6

Arizona – 10

Georgia – 15

Idaho – 4

Kansas – 6

Kentucky – 8

Louisiana – 9

Mississippi – 6

Missouri – 11

Montana – 3

Nebraska – 5

North Carolina – 15

North Dakota – 3

Oklahoma – 7

South Carolina – 8

South Dakota – 3

Tennessee – 11

Texas – 34

Utah – 5

West Virginia – 5

Wyoming – 3

TOTAL = 200

Edited November 3, 200817 yr by jcar03

Here' mine:

Obama

California – 55

Colorado – 9

Connecticut – 7

D.C. – 3

Delaware – 3

Hawaii – 4

Illinois – 21

Iowa – 7

Maine – 4

Maryland – 10

Massachusetts – 12

Michigan – 17

Minnesota – 10

Nevada – 5

New Mexico – 5

New Hampshire – 4

New Jersey – 15

New York – 31

Ohio – 20

Oregon – 7

Pennsylvania – 21

Rhode Island – 4

Vermont – 3

Washington – 11

Wisconsin – 10

Virginia – 13

TOTAL = 300

McCain

Alabama – 9

Alaska – 3

Arkansas – 6

Arizona – 10

Florida – 27

Georgia – 15

Idaho – 4

Indiana – 11

Kansas – 6

Kentucky – 8

Louisiana – 9

Mississippi – 6

Missouri – 11

Montana – 3

Nebraska – 5

North Carolina – 15

North Dakota – 3

Oklahoma – 7

South Carolina – 8

South Dakota – 3

Tennessee – 11

Texas – 34

Utah – 5

West Virginia – 5

Wyoming – 3

TOTAL = 238

Not that anybody has proposed this, but I don't see Obama winning Virginia and not winning Penn. It seems like CNN keeps playing with that scenario.