I know that there is already a thread devoted to a discussion of the 2008 presidential election. However, because that thread solely deals with people's opinions on the issues and the candidates, I wanted to start a new thread that is simply devoted to an objective analysis of how McCain and Obama will do in the Electoral College. (If the moderators choose to lock this thread and ship this post over to the existing thread, I completely understand. However, I strongly feel this new thread is necessary because I don't want discussion regarding the Electoral College to get lost in the shuffle of the very large thread that currently exists.)

Most of you are familiar with the Electoral College: Presidents are not elected on the basis as to which candidates win the most total votes. (And, if you believe the rules should be changed to reflect this, this thread is the place to discuss you opinions on this matter.) Rather, electoral votes are awarded for each state where a candidate gets the most votes. Currently, the winning candidate must accumulate at least 270 electoral votes (out of a possible total of 538).

Below is a list of how many electoral votes each state has. However, rather than just provide an alphabetical listing of the states, I have sorted them into five categories: Safe Obama, Lean Obama, True Toss-Up, Lean McCain, and Safe McCain. Note that the number of electoral votes a particular state has is in parentheses next to that state's name.

Safe Obama (186 electoral votes in total):

California (55)

Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)

District of Columbia (3)

Hawaii (4)

Illinois (21)

Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (12)

New Jersey (15)

New York (31)

Oregon (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)

Washington (11)

Lean Obama (62 electoral votes in total):

Maine (4)

Michigan (17)

Minnesota (10)

Pennsylvania (21)

Wisconsin (10)

True Toss-Up (74 electoral votes in total):

Colorado (9)

Iowa (7)

Missouri (11)

Nevada (5)

New Hampshire (4)

New Mexico (5)

Ohio (20)

Virginia (13)

Lean McCain (81 electoral votes in total):

Arizona (10)

Florida (27)

Georgia (15)

Indiana (11)

Montana (3)

North Carolina (15)

Safe McCain (135 electoral votes in total):

Alabama (9)

Alaska (3)

Arkansas (6)

Idaho (4)

Kansas (6)

Kentucky (8)

Louisiana (9)

Mississippi (6)

Nebraska (5)

North Dakota (3)

Oklahoma (7)

South Carolina (8)

South Dakota (3)

Tennessee (11)

Texas (34)

Utah (5)

West Virginia (5)

Wyoming (3)

For most of these states, the categories in which they belong are obvious. I had a tough time whether to place Georgia, Indiana, & North Carolina in the Safe McCain or Lean McCain categories; while I am 90% sure that McCain will carry these states, many experts (and polls) have suggested a somewhat close race in these states. Also, while many people condiser Florida as a toss-up, I put it in the Lean McCain category since (1) the state has been trending Republican in recent years and (2) Obama is doing considerably worse than most other Democrats when it comes to appealing to Jewish and Hispanic voters. Finally, most pundits would probably rate Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-ups. However, I could not disagree more with this assessment, since recent statewide elections show both states to be considerably Democratic.

If you add up the Safe and Lean Obama states, it totals 248 electoral votes; meanwhile the Safe and Lean McCain states total 216 electoral votes. (It should be noted that the Democrats carried all of the Safe & Lean Obama states in the past two elections, while the Republicans carried all of the Safe & Lean McCain states.) This, of course, means that the burden is on McCain to carry the lion's share of toss-up states.

Currently, I am not ready to make an exact prediction as to how many electoral votes each candidate will get on election day. However, this thread is the place for both me and you to make these predictions as the election nears. Also, free free to discuss how the presidential election is shaping up in every one of these states, and whether you agree with my assessment over which states are Safe Obama, Lean Obama, toss-ups, Lean McCain, or Safe McCain.

Edited August 31, 200817 yr by Max

Even though the election is still over three weeks away, I feel confident enough to make my predictions as to the states that each candidate will win. Unfortunately, it looks completely hopeless for McCain, as voters are mad as hell about the economy and are putting 100% of the blame on McCain and the Republicans (which, IMO, is grossly unfair). Therefore, unless some Earth-shattering event happens in the next three weeks that turns around this election, I am going to stick by the following predictions until election day.

In summary, I believe that Obama will win a total of 349 electoral votes (by carrying 27 states plus DC), while McCain will win a total of 189 electoral votes (by carrying 23 states). A detailed breakdown is presented below:

States Obama will win:

California (55)

Colorado (9) [a state that last voted Democratic in 1992]

Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)

District of Columbia (3)

Florida (27) [a state Bush won twice]

Hawaii (4)

Illinois (21)

Iowa (7) [a state Bush won in 2004, but not in 2000]

Maine (4)

Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (12)

Michigan (17)

Minnesota (10)

Missouri (11) [a state Bush won twice]

Nevada (5) [a state Bush won twice]

New Hampshire (4) [a state Bush won in 2000, but not in 2004]

New Jersey (15)

New Mexico (5) [a state Bush won in 2004, but not in 2000]

New York (31)

Ohio (20) [a state Bush won twice]

Oregon (7)

Pennsylvania (21)

Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)

Virginia (13) [a state that last voted Democratic in 1964]

Washington (11)

Wisconsin (10)

States McCain will win:

Alabama (9)

Alaska (3)

Arizona (10)

Arkansas (6)

Georgia (15)

Idaho (4)

Indiana (11)

Kansas (6)

Kentucky (8)

Louisiana (9)

Mississippi (6)

Montana (3)

Nebraska (5)

North Carolina (15)

North Dakota (3)

Oklahoma (7)

South Carolina (8)

South Dakota (3)

Tennessee (11)

Texas (34)

Utah (5)

West Virginia (5)

Wyoming (3)

The stock market crash that occurred in September dramatically altered the course of the election. In fact, if this crash never happened, I believe McCain would also win Florida (which is now Home Foreclosure Central), Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. (Interestingly enough, this would have resulted in a 269-269 electoral college tie between McCain and Obama.)

One final thing I want to say is that these predictions still have MaCain winning the swing states of Indiana, Montana, and North Carolina. Even though Obama is trying really hard to win all three of these states, I feel that Indiana is still too conservative to vote for a Democrat in a presidential election. And, while Montana and North Carolina are trending Democratic (much more so than Indiana), I still predict McCain will squeak out a win in both states.

I'd be very interested to read the state-by-state predictions other posters may have. Just remember not to do anything wild, like predicting Obama will win Kentucky, or McCain will win New Jersey!

Edited October 11, 200817 yr by Max

OK, I'll build mine off of your list.

I do not think a Republican can win on the economy or Iraq with a Republican in the White House. If I Democrat were in the White House, the Democratic candidate would be carrying the blame. On Iraq, I think voters want to know the president's priority will be getting us out.

I think Obam will win 329 electoral votes and McCain will win 209.

I will add, it could be closer than this. I the majority of the undecideds will either stay home or vote McCain. I also think an African-American presidential candidate is tough to poll. So here we go.

States Obama will win:

California (55)

Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)

District of Columbia (3)

Florida (27) [a state Bush won twice]

Hawaii (4)

Illinois (21)

Iowa (7) [a state Bush won in 2004, but not in 2000]

Maine (4)

Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (12)

Michigan (17)

Minnesota (10)

Nevada (5) [a state Bush won twice]

New Hampshire (4) [a state Bush won in 2000, but not in 2004]

New Jersey (15)

New Mexico (5) [a state Bush won in 2004, but not in 2000]

New York (31)

Ohio (20) [a state Bush won twice]

Oregon (7)

Pennsylvania (21)

Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)

Virginia (13) [a state that last voted Democratic in 1964]

Washington (11)

Wisconsin (10)

States McCain will win:

Alabama (9)

Alaska (3)

Arizona (10)

Arkansas (6)

Colorado (9) [a state that last voted Democratic in 1992]

Georgia (15)

Idaho (4)

Indiana (11)

Kansas (6)

Kentucky (8)

Louisiana (9)

Mississippi (6)

Missouri (11) [a state Bush won twice]

Montana (3)

Nebraska (5)

North Carolina (15)

North Dakota (3)

Oklahoma (7)

South Carolina (8)

South Dakota (3)

Tennessee (11)

Texas (34)

Utah (5)

West Virginia (5)

Wyoming (3)

I think Virginia could actually be a McCain state. This is the one state where there could be a strong Bradley Effect IMO.

I'm a little more conservative as to Obama winning.

Won't list the states, but will summarize.

Obama will get Bush 2004 states plus--

Colorado

Iowa

Nevada

New Mexico

Ohio

Makes it 298 Obama. 240 McCain.

With the election coming to a close, I'm deciding to make a last minute switch in my predictions. Specifically, I am predicting that Obama will now win Montana and North Carolina. (I previously had McCain winning both states.) This, of course, results in a revision in the total electoral vote count of each candidate: Obama will now accumulate 367 electoral votes to McCain's 171.

While I'd put the chances of a McCain victory at less than 10 percent, there is a way for such a scenario to occur: First, one needs to acknowledge the fact that McCain is definately going to lose Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico (four states that Bush carried last time). This means that if McCain carries all of the other Bush 2004 states plus Pennsylvania, he will still get 273 votes (three more than needed for victory). Obviously, this means that McCain must carry PA to win. And, while I have been very critical of McCain in the past for spending too many resources in PA, I now understand why he has chosen to do so (given the fact that VA, IA, CO, and NM are absolutely hopeless). However, when it comes to the popular vote, an Obama victory is guaranteed, since it will be impossible for McCain to overcome Obama's one million plus vote margin of victory in Illinios and roughly two million vote margin of victory in (each) California and New York.

Also, while this is a bit off-topic, I'd also like to predict that the Democrats will gain eight seats in the Senate. They are as follows: Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Alaska. (The first three seats mentioned above are open due to the retirement of Republicans; the last five seats will mark instances where a Republican incumbent is going to lose. Nevertheless, I still believe that Republicans will prevail in the competitive races found in Kentucky, Mississippi, Georgia, and Maine.) As a result of these gains, the Democrats will have 59 Senate seats (if one includes the two independents who currently caucus with the Democrats) in the next Congress.

Finally, I'll predict that the Democrats will gain between 25 to 30 seats in the House. Please note, however, that this number is just an educated guess that I pulled out of my head (unlike my Senate predictions, which were actually based on a careful analysis of each race).

Edited November 1, 200817 yr by Max

I don't think the election will be as close as the media is leading us to believe. The media last time had Kerry ahead in all the polls, but yet W won.

Well this it late but in 04. Bush lead all polls consistently leading up to election day. The exit polls showed Kerry winning early in the day on Election day.

Well this it late but in 04. Bush lead all polls consistently leading up to election day. The exit polls showed Kerry winning early in the day on Election day.

Did Kerry hold an average 2 point lead in the final polling data? I seem to remember it being a bit of a shock at just how convincing Bush's victory actually was.

If McCain has to win Pennsylvania to get to 270.... wow, I'd say chances are less than 10%. All polls for the last few weeks have shown a double digit point lead for Obama in that state. The undecideds in these battleground states also are well below the national average with most only being in the neighborhood of 2-3%.

I would love to sit here and say its all over for John McCain, but this is the American electorate we are talking about.... so its not over until the polls close.

I remember Bush typically leading in polls leading up to the election. It was the exit polls that showed Kerry leading and I think that is where the surprise in Bush solid victory came from. All the exit polls showed was that Kerry voters happened to vote earlier then Bush voters.

This year they have said the exit poll data is being kept under wraps until after polls are closing which is how its supposed to be. Someone jumped the gun in 2004 and got exicted and it was released early because they were thinking upset since Bush had been up in polls prior to that.

Recent Polls have moved Arizona to a Toss Up state!

I fully expect McCain to carry it though but still not good to lose favorability in your own state.

I've never thought that Arizona would be a slam-dunk for McCain. That's because all of the Southwest (apart from Utah) has trended Democratic in recent years. (Although Arizona has not trended as strongly Democratic as Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado have.) In fact, Obama would definately carry Arizona were it not for the fact that McCain is from the state. As it is, I expect McCain's margin of victory in Arizona to be about seven to ten points.

Edited November 1, 200817 yr by Max

Recent Polls have moved Arizona to a Toss Up state!

I fully expect McCain to carry it though but still not good to lose favorability in your own state.

In our election last year the then Prime Minister was very soundly beaten in his own seat, it would have been within an hour of finding out that not only had he lost his seat, but that his party had also lost the election.

I'm still a little surprised that polls show Obama winning in Virginia. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm waiting till election day to believe his status there. And if he wins there, it's pretty much over.

As a result of a huge influx of people from Maryland and DC into the northern part of the state, Virginia is now a heavily Democratic state (even though it was strongly Republican up until the last five years or so). In fact, I now believe that it is impossible for a Republican to win a statewide election there. I expect Obama's margin of victory in Virginia to be at least 5 points (though probably closer to 10).

Edited November 2, 200817 yr by Max

As a result of a huge influx of people from Maryland and DC into the northern part of the state, Virginia is now a heavily Democratic state (even though it was strongly Republican up until the last five years or so). In fact, I now believe that it is impossible for a Republican to win a statewide election there. I expect Obama's margin of victory in Virginia to be at least 5 points (though probably closer to 10).

It just seems like a big thing for only 5 years since the state wasn't that close in 00 and 04.

The margin of error in those Arizona polls is +/- 4% so he could be up 8%.

The margin of error in those Arizona polls is +/- 4% so he could be up 8%.

The fact that there is actual discussion on Arizona being a toss up state I think is pretty indicative of where McCain stands this weekend.... it isn't good.