Christie was never called a moderate that I can remember. He's socially conservative, fiscally conservative, and was seen as being a part in that the Karl Rove empire of the first half of the 00s. If anything he's tried to feign moderation in the last few years.
I'm sure Lhota is moderate, but I'm not surprised if moderate Republicans would be the nominee for NYC mayor.
I think Christie will win by 20-25. I don't see anyone likely to call that a failure, but we'll see.
I also agree that McAuliffe will probably win by 5. That's the one I think the media might spin as a failure if he doesn't win by more, even though, realistically, that might be his ceiling, since Virginia is still a split state. I'd say 7-8 at most. If Obershain (who is also extremely far right but has a ton of financial help and who isn't as outspoken as Cucinelli and EW Jackson) wins AG, the media will spin that as a sign of how tough the GOP is and Obamacare fails, etc. I think he'll win. If he doesn't it will be a narrow loss.
May I also say that I never, ever want to hear Ron Paul described as "libertarian" again after he campaign for Cucinelli.
Aside from the AG race, the most interesting contest tonight will likely be the primary in AL-1, to replace Jo Bonner. Bradley Byrne is very conservative but also very much of the establishment - big money and business. Dean Young is even more conservative, and firebreathing. In spite of huge money going to Byrne, and all the establishment support. there's a good chance Young will win the primary. This will be another new face for the GOP's future:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/30/alabama-primary-republican-q-a
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/alabama-primary-tea-party-dean-young-bradley-byrne-99286.html?hp=l2