Will the economic downturn finally be the death of soaps?

[Africana]

If these people were doing their job it could actually revitalize soaps. Soaps were a staple in the 60's, 70's, and 80's because most people only had network channels on their TV's. Cable hadn't got as big as it is now and you basically had NBC, ABC, and CBS. Now with the recession people are going to be cutting back on a lot of their luxuries, including cable. With most people canceling their cable (especially when there's never ever anything to watch anyway on those channels) they're going to basically stick with either basic cable or network channels and it can pull them back into daytime viewing but sadly there's nothing on daytime to view, so they're going to miss that boat.

[MarkH]

I wish I believed that were true, but I don't.

People will dial back to basic cable, but I think they won't get rid of it. This is further assured by the fact that, for many, giving up cable would require them to buy DTVs. It is a different world. Cable is bundled with their internet.

They're not coming back, our soaps. Some may hold on, but none will reclaim what they once had. That day is done. It is like your grandmother's 78-rpm records. Some hold on to them and listen, but most have moved on, and the next generations have no interest.

[MarkH]

Okay, I know my damn graphs get irritating, even to me .

But look at this one. This is what is called a "quadratic regression". It comes up with the best-fitting line to describe the trajectory of Y&R's ratings since 1990. As you can see, it has a kind of "accelerated decline" function, where more and more people drop each year. (But a linear decline, or straight line, fits almost as well).

I don't need to say another word. The picture literally speaks 1,000 words.

[cct]

MarkH, you and your graphs are one of the reasons I enjoy coming here.

(wipes brown from nose)