Nielsen accuracy and it's effect on Soaps

[alphanguy74]

Here is a question, I've seen passing mention to Nielsen's innacurate tallying methods, and I'd like to discuss that. How do they do this in modern times? Do they even bother with trying to gather numbers from viewers who watch TV OTA (Over the air)? So my question is, how they gather their info, and how is it flawed? Which markets do they use?

[MarkH]

Neilsen still uses probability sampling, which is the single best method. It is flawed of course...to the extent that you misrepresent population segments. Rare segments, and viewers of low-number broadcasts have a particular risk of being under-counted. The larger the Neilsen sample, the better the numbers. This is why the Sweeps periods would actually be decent (since all those supplemental diaries get mailed everywhere), except the networks fiddle with the schedules, rendering all numbers useless.

I am assuming that as DVR market penetration gets closer to the universe, more and more use will be made of the ability to count everything that is watched and recorded. Already, TiVo is selling a DVR-based counting service to networks/broadcasters. That will be sort of a highly refined version of the "people meter". Of course, to truly count everthing, each TV would have to be DVRd, and you'd need a login system of sort to track which viewers are watching what.

What people need to remember is that while Neilsen can be flawed, there is nothing better. At this time, any alternative would be worse.

[DaytimeFan]

The networks know that the Nielsen's underrepresented the daytime audience which is why I think so much emphasis is placed on the demographics, rather than the total viewers. The demos are sellable to the ad buyers.

[SteveFrame]

As a former Nielsen family I will go through the process of our selection and maybe it will help.

First they contacted us by phone and did a brief interview to see if we were interested. We were chosen based on some surveys I had filled out.

They took down basic info about size of our household, # of TV's, amount of TV we watched, and the ages of each household member. They said at the time our particular age group with our kids was needed, plus we had my mother living with us. That put us as a household that waivered across 3 different demos.

Next they came out and did a in-house interview that lasted 1 hour and inspected all of our TV's, VCR's and game systems. This all included getting an average of who watched what TV and a basic idea of how often. They determined to count 2 viewers for the living room TV, 2 for my daughters bedroom, 1 for my son, 1 for our bedroom and 1 for my Mom's room when those particular TV's were on. They also came up with another formula that covered various other situations of when 2 TV's in the house were on or 3 or just 1. Each got counted as a different number of viewers depending on how many TV's were on.

With all of that and the signing of papers they accepted us.

They came back another day and installed switches into every TV, VCR, and game system in the house. This told them when that TV was on and what was being watched. It told them if the VCR was turned on and if it was taping a program or playing a movie.

Each month we got a check figured to a percentage of how much TV we watched. I think the biggest check we ever got was 33 or 35 dollars.

We stayed a Nielsen family for a year. When all of our ages went up we moved to different brackets in some of the demos which threw off their sampling numbers so we were dropped.

They called a year ago and asked if we interested again as they needed one of our demos again, but when they learned there were only 2 of us living here now they were not interested.

Everybody talks about the diaries but the whole year we were a member we never filled out a diary. The boxes counted everything for us.

[alphanguy74]

Does Nielsen only use chosen families fitted with electronic devices today? Do they gather info from any cable or satellite providers? Is there any websites that denote what markets they use for their samplings?

[MarkH]

They use the diaries during sweeps only, for smaller markets.

TiVo does do a ratings service now, based on its DVR viewing patterns. This is in growth.

Check out tvbythenumbers

[alphanguy74]

You know, it seems in this electronic age, Nielsen's method seem WAY antiquated. I'd like to make sure they sample homes from large and small markets, I bet they are really low on sampling RURAL homes, the type that watch soaps VERY heavily. What is the market penetration for our soaps now? I know years ago, affiliates carried a show, and sometimes they didn't. At the end of Y&R, you'd hear Bern Bennett every day say, "Stay tuned for Search For Tomorrow....next over most of these CBS stations". The key word there is MOST. I talked with a gentleman who lived in both Kansas City and Des Monies, Iowa through his life, and he said the NBC affiliate in Kansas City, WDAF, never aired DOOL until 1971, and WHO in Des Moines didn't pick it up until 1984 according to him! Does this still happen alot today? I know I read about affiliates dropping the show being one of the last big blows for Edge Of Night.