When it comes to the issue of cancellation, soaps...

[Max]

Most everyone here, myself included, has stated that the soap genre is in terrible shape. Certainly, when it comes to the current quality of soaps, this sentiment cannont be denied. However, I have recently started to reject the commonly held belief that the soap genre is in grave danger of extinction.

This change in opinion is the result of the fact that no high profile soap cancellations have recently taken place. (Obviously, I don't consider NBC's cancellation of a short-lived soap like Passions as "high profile.") In fact, since AW's cancellation in 1999, no long-running soap has been cancelled. The fact that nearly a decade has passed since a long-running soap was cancelled is especially stunning considering the fact that the Neilsen ratings for all shows (other than Y&R and B& have fallen to anemic lows.

I'm sure the resiliency of these soaps surprises most everybody. Take the example of GL, for instance. I fully expected the soap to have been cancelled back in 2004. After it got renewed, I then predicted that it would be cancelled each subsequent year, only to turn out wrong every time. Obviously, GL's survival was the result of its budget being slashed to the bare bones. Yet, precisely for this reason, the conventional wisdom stated that GL was a goner (since too many viewers would leave the show due to it becoming non-recognizable).

It is a commonly held belief that TPTB want to exit the soap business. Since most soaps now get less than a 2.3 rating, this belief certainly seems logical. Yet, if this is truly the way TPTB feel, why haven't any long-running soaps been cancelled this decade? Honestly, I do not know the answer to this question, although I propose a theory in the following paragraph. Certainly, I would very much like to read your thoughts as to why this is the case.

The only reason I can come up with as to why low rated soaps get renewed year after year is the following: when soaps were cancelled in the past, the networks used to try to find programming to replace these soaps. However, this programming--whether or not it consisted of new soaps--almost always scored lower ratings than the old soaps that it replaced. Then, as more and more soaps were cancelled, the networks gave up trying to develop replacement programming but instead turned over the time to the affiliates. Unfortunately, this not only resulted in a loss of revenue, but it also placed the networks in a position where they could never take back that time. So, as the result of these past experiences, networks today simply do not want to cancel their soaps, no matter how low the ratings go.

In the future, I predict that all the long running soaps will continue to get renewed every year. Of course, the condition placed on these renewals is the continued slashing of each soap's budget. While the fans will obviously suffer from this, the networks will get want they want: keeping these timeslots out of the control of the affiliates while being able to squeeze the last remaining profits out of these soaps.

[DaytimeFan]

That's a round about, yet optimistic, way of looking at it. I see your point.

The issue that I think really strengthens your argument is the fact that soaps are still profitable. Perhaps not as profitable as they once were...but they still make money (and a lot of it in actual fact). Also, you're very right about any show that takes a place of a soap, it NEVER gets the same audience share, not ever. It even happened with 'Passions' which rarely, if ever, scored the same ratings as AW. I suppose it's all about what the network or production company deems 'acceptable' in terms of profit.

NBC, for decades, has seemed unsatisfied with the profits soaps bring in. On the other hand you have the folks at CBS who have gone to great lengths to promote their soaps, not to mention ABC's rabid protection of their soaps.

However, at a point the ratings will likely erode to a point where the profitability will be greatly hampered. I don't know when that level of erosion will hit. If you'd asked me 10 years ago what the numbers would be I would have said under 3 million viewers and the show will get canceled. Well it's 2008 and only 2 soaps (sometimes 3) have more than 3 million viewers.

I think another issue that hits soap fans like those of us on SON is that we view our soaps critically. We know who the writers, producers and executives are. We know the backroom dealing, the ratings, sweeps periods, we see the creative decline and the ageism...we see and know all the faults of the genre and perhaps we see the doom and the gloom because we see the ugly side of the business. In essence, we see the truth and that's not what the networks are trying to sell.

I hope your right Max, it would be nice to think that this genre is better off than we all think it is.

[skiman12082004]

I think if this GL experiment works it will bode well for all of daytime. Since it has been reported that GL has been renewed for another year with an option to continue after that certainly shows some encouragement. The genre as well as all of televison is in a decline ratings wise. As long as the shows can turn a profit they will continue; its that simple. Since the soaps are much cheaper to produce than primetime and they yield better ratings (demos) than talk shows and the like I think they will continue for many years to come. I just think we will have smaller cast and less glitz and glammer but nonethless I think we will still have our shows.

[Noel]

That was a very nice post, DaytimeFan. The one that I quoted here is the one that caught my eye the most. VERY well said.

[EastMA2]

At this point, I think all 8 remaining network soaps want each other to succeed. And, all are successful on some level. GL has rightfully been the most mentioned soap to be cancelled the last few years. But they remain competitive, even with their new format. They beat GH in viewers on the Monday of the most recent ratings, a feat that has been happening quite a few times lately. So many of the shows are very close in day to day viewers. As long as all of these shows remain comptetive with each other and no one drops alarmingly below the pack, hopefully we'll see these 8 shows remain.

[PJA]

The past 2 the or three soaps that have been cancelled have been significantly lower than the other soaps on the air at the time they were cancelled. Right now there is a not a soap that consistenly lower than the others. So I agree with the poster who said that unless one significantly drops below the others, we won't see any cancellations anytime soon.

Also as someone eles mentioned, all of television ratings are down and I just think that it is due to the mere fact that there is more to watch on tv. You can't really compare todays ratings to the 70's when there were like 3 or 4 channels and now there are like 300. Not to mention the fact that less and less people are home during the day. I never believed that GL was in danger of being cancelled all those years ago when people started saying it.