State Population Rankings According to the 2010 U.S. Census

[Max]

This past week the results of the 2010 U.S. Census were publicly released. Perhaps the biggest impact the Census has on Americans (and their political system) is the determination of how many seats each state will be alloted in the 435 member House of Representatives. States will fast population growth rates (since 2000) will gain House seats, while those will slow population growth rates will lose seats.

In case you didn't know, the number of electoral votes each state casts in a presidential election is equal to the number of representatives it sends to the House plus its number of Senators. (Because each state has two Senators regardless of its population, any state's electoral vote total equals the number of Congressmen it has plus the number two.) Therefore, states that gain (or lose) a given number of representatives in the House will gain (or lose) that same number of electoral votes.

Below is a list of all fifty states, ranked from most populated to least populated (according to the new 2010 U.S. Census data). For each state, I've also listed the number of representatives it will send to the House (beginning in 2012) along with its number of electoral votes (that it will also have beginning in 2012). Finally, I have listed--in parentheses--the number of House seats/electoral votes a state has gained or lost (compared to what that state had following the 2000 Census), in the event that there is a change (in House seats/electoral votes) from the previous decade.

Here is the list:

53 Representatives/55 Electoral Votes:

#1: California (no change in House seats/electoral votes from last decade)

36 Representatives/38 Electoral Votes:

#2: Texas (gain of four)

27 Representatives/29 Electoral Votes (each):

#3: New York (loss of two)

#4: Florida (gain of two)

18 Representatives/20 Electoral Votes (each):

#5: Illinois (loss of one)

#6: Pennsylvania (loss of one)

16 Representatives/18 Electoral Votes:

#7: Ohio (loss of two)

14 Representatives/16 Electoral Votes (each):

#8: Michigan (loss of one)

#9: Georgia (gain of one)

13 Representatives/15 Electoral Votes:

#10: North Carolina (no change)

12 Representatives/14 Electoral Votes:

#11: New Jersey (loss of one)

11 Representatives/13 Electoral Votes:

#12: Virginia (no change)

10 Representatives/12 Electoral Votes:

#13: Washington (gain of one)

9 Representatives/11 Electoral Votes (each):

#14: Massachusetts (loss of one)

#15: Indiana (no change)

#16: Arizona (gain of one)

#17: Tennessee (no change)

8 Representatives/10 Electoral Votes (each):

#18: Missouri (loss of one)

#19: Maryland (no change)

#20: Wisconsin (no change)

#21: Minnesota (no change)

7 Representatives/9 Electoral Votes (each):

#22: Colorado (no change)

#23: Alabama (no change)

#24: South Carolina (gain of one)

6 Representatives/8 Electoral Votes (each):

#25: Louisiana (loss of one)

#26: Kentucky (no change)

5 Representatives/7 Electoral Votes (each):

#27: Oregon (no change)

#28: Oklahoma (no change)

#29: Connecticut (no change)

4 Representatives/6 Electoral Votes (each):

#30: Iowa (loss of one)

#31: Mississippi (no change)

#32: Arkansas (no change)

#33: Kansas (no change)

#34: Utah (gain of one)

#35: Nevada (gain of one)

3 Representatives/5 Electoral Votes (each):

#36: New Mexico (no change)

#37: West Virginia (no change)

#38: Nebraska (no change)

2 Representatives/4 Electoral Votes (each):

#39: Idaho (no change)

#40: Hawaii (no change)

#41: Maine (no change)

#42: New Hampshire (no change)

#43: Rhode Island (no change)

1 Representative/3 Electoral Votes (each):

#44: Montana (no change)

#45: Delaware (no change)

#46: South Dakota (no change)

#47: Alaska (no change)

#48: North Dakota (no change)

#49: Vermont (no change)

#50: Wyoming (no change)

Before I conclude this post, I just wanted to make some random comments below:

*The most surprising state (in terms of who gained or lost House seats) is definately Washington, since the regions of the country that usually experience a high rate of population growth are the Southeast and Southwest (as opposed to the Pacific Northwest). (Though Louisiana is in the fast growing Southeast, I can't say it is a surprise that it lost a House seat, given the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.)

*Were the District of Columbia a state, it would rank in-between Vermont and Wyoming. As you might expect, DC has the bare minimum of 3 electoral votes in presidential elections.

*I believe that the 2010 Census marks the first time that California has failed to gain any House seats (from the prior decade). In fact, there was speculation at one time that California would actually lose a seat (though luckily for them that did not happen).

*Though you won't know this by looking at the above list, the only state to actually lose population from 2000 to 2010 was Michigan. That's why I'm surprised Michigan only lost one House seat while New York and Ohio (which both still gained populaton, albeit at a very slow rate) each lost two.

*Slightly over half of all Americans live in the nation's nine most populated states. Similarly, if a presidential candidate won all of the eleven largest states but lost the remaining thirty-nine (along with losing DC), he would still be elected president. (Though reastically speaking, of course, such a scenario would never happen, given that Texas and New York would only support the same candidate in a landslide election.)

*In the 2008 presidential election, Obama won 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173 (with 270 electoral votes needed to win); if each state had these new "numbers" (from the 2010 Census) back then, the outcome would have been 359 electoral votes for Obama to 179 for McCain. While a shift of six electoral votes has no material impact in an election (like that of 2008) where the margin of victory is substantial, it could make a big difference in a very close race: Back in 2004, for instance, Bush collected 286 electoral votes compared to Kerry's 251; with the 2010 data, it would have been 292 electoral votes for Bush to 245 for Kerry. This small electoral shift would have allowed Bush to defeat Kerry even without winning Ohio. (And, if you remember, Bush only won the 2004 election because he won Ohio by about 110,000 votes.)

[soapfan770]

What I'm curious about and haven't found yet is the information on demographics. I suppose those hard numbers should be released sooner or later. I have read that the white population of the U.S. is currently at 74%, and if you exclude Hispanic Whites, then it becomes 65%. I'm also curious about how my own demographic--NA/AI&AN changed, probably not to much I don't think. If anything I think there would be more significant growth in mixed races.

I assume that additional Arizona seat will be in the Phoenix area. I really don't understand the appeal of Phoenix besides warm weather in January unlike Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and even Las Vegas it's a city with no culture to it, just one hot trashy mess in the desert.