Barack Obama Elected President!

[Ryan]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080530/ap_on_...3nAJ1e3HHlh24cA

Obama used party rules to foil Clinton

By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER, Associated Press Writer 37 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Unlike Hillary Rodham Clinton, rival Barack Obama planned for the long haul.

Clinton hinged her whole campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama's staff researched congressional districts in states with primaries that were months away. What they found were opportunities to win delegates, even in states they would eventually lose.

Obama's campaign mastered some of the most arcane rules in politics, and then used them to foil a front-runner who seemed to have every advantage — money, fame and a husband who had essentially run the Democratic Party for eight years as president.

"Without a doubt, their understanding of the nominating process was one of the keys to their success," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not aligned with either candidate. "They understood the nuances of it and approached it at a strategic level that the Clinton campaign did not."

Careful planning is one reason why Obama is emerging as the nominee as the Democratic Party prepares for its final three primaries, Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Attributing his success only to soaring speeches and prodigious fundraising ignores a critical part of contest.

Obama used the Democrats' system of awarding delegates to limit his losses in states won by Clinton while maximizing gains in states he carried. Clinton, meanwhile, conserved her resources by essentially conceding states that favored Obama, including many states that held caucuses instead of primaries.

In a stark example, Obama's victory in Kansas wiped out the gains made by Clinton for winning New Jersey, even though New Jersey had three times as many delegates at stake. Obama did it by winning big in Kansas while keeping the vote relatively close in New Jersey.

The research effort was headed by Jeffrey Berman, Obama's press-shy national director of delegate operations. Berman, who also tracked delegates in former Rep. Dick Gephardt's presidential bids, spent the better part of 2007 analyzing delegate opportunities for Obama.

"The whole Clinton campaign thought this would be like previous campaigns, a battle of momentum," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "They thought she would be the only one would who could compete in such a momentous event as Super Tuesday."

Instead, Obama won a majority of the 23 Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5 and then spent the following two weeks racking up 11 straight victories, building an insurmountable lead among delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

What made it especially hard for Clinton to catch up was that Obama understood and took advantage of a nominating system that emerged from the 1970s and '80s, when the party struggled to find a balance between party insiders and its rank-and-file voters.

Until the 1970s, the nominating process was controlled by party leaders, with ordinary citizens having little say. There were primaries and caucuses, but the delegates were often chosen behind closed doors, sometimes a full year before the national convention. That culminated in a 1968 national convention that didn't reflect the diversity of the party — racially or ideologically.

The fiasco of the 1968 convention in Chicago, where police battled anti-war protesters in the streets, led to calls for a more inclusive process.

One big change was awarding delegates proportionally, meaning you can finish second or third in a primary and still win delegates to the party's national convention. As long candidates get at least 15 percent of the vote, they are eligible for delegates.

The system enables strong second-place candidates to stay competitive and extend the race — as long as they don't run out of campaign money.

"For people who want a campaign to end quickly, proportional allocation is a bad system," Devine said. "For people who want a system that is fair and reflective of the voters, it's a much better system."

Another big change was the introduction of superdelegates, the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can vote for whomever they choose regardless of what happens in the primaries and caucuses.

Superdelegates were first seated at the 1984 convention. Much has been made of them this year because neither Obama nor Clinton can reach the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination without their support.

A more subtle change was the distribution of delegates within each state. As part of the proportional system, Democrats award delegates based on statewide vote totals as well as results in individual congressional districts. The delegates, however, are not distributed evenly within a state, like they are in the Republican system.

Under Democratic rules, congressional districts with a history of strong support for Democratic candidates are rewarded with more delegates than districts that are more Republican. Some districts packed with Democratic voters can have as many as eight or nine delegates up for grabs, while more Republican districts in the same state have three or four.

The system is designed to benefit candidates who do well among loyal Democratic constituencies, and none is more loyal than black voters. Obama, who would be the first black candidate nominated by a major political party, has been winning 80 percent to 90 percent of the black vote in most primaries, according to exit polls.

"Black districts always have a large number of delegates because they are the highest performers for the Democratic Party," said Elaine Kamarck, a Harvard University professor who is writing a book about the Democratic nominating process.

"Once you had a black candidate you knew that he would be winning large numbers of delegates because of this phenomenon," said Kamarck, who is also a superdelegate supporting Clinton.

In states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Clinton won the statewide vote but Obama won enough delegates to limit her gains. In states Obama carried, like Georgia and Virginia, he maximized the number of delegates he won.

"The Obama campaign was very good at targeting districts in areas where they could do well," said former DNC Chairman Don Fowler, a Clinton superdelegate from South Carolina. "They were very conscious and aware of these nuances."

But, Fowler noted, the best strategy in the world would have been useless without the right candidate.

"If that same strategy and that same effort had been used with a different candidate, a less charismatic candidate, a less attractive candidate, it wouldn't have worked," Fowler said. "The reason they look so good is because Obama was so good."

[DevotedToAMC]

Is she still talking? Gosh she does need to shut up. I think Reagan Democrats are Republicans

[Jess]

Geraldine Ferraro should shut up. Sexism my ass. You know, Obama isn't yelling racism, but Ferraro, and Bill certainly are yelling sexism. I can't believe that she wrote that column.

[DevotedToAMC]

Ferraro is starting to come off like one condom short of a protected romp. There is no sexism if many men are voting for Hillary.

[Southofnowhere]

Obama used to do this for a living of course he's good at it , he's not all talk folks this Man is like a Genuis.

Now let's see how dood the Clintions are doing what their known for , getting peeps to do what they want.

How many naked photos do they have of the Super-D's?

[DevotedToAMC]

Now this would be funny

[Jess]

I think Obama ran a good primary campaign. But, I honestly believe he is going to have to get some street fighters behind him in the general election. He was knocked off track for a solid month between Texas and PA. A month will kill him in the fall. He didn't know how to respond or how to put Wright and little small problems behind him. Those weren't big problems. He needs someone who can come out swinging and come out quick helping him on the stump in the fall.

I think you can win a primary with good organization. A general election is totally different. I also think he needs to bring someone in who can help in sharpen his own message a bit. I don't think Obama has a general election team in place right now.

[DevotedToAMC]

Well it is time for both Obama and Hillary to move on campaigning against McCain right now just so they can remain ahead of him in polls (both of them still beat him in hypothetical match ups)...I think, with Hillary campaigning against McCain, Obama will see her spirit and determination to beating him in high esteem (or with high energy) that it will encourage him to run with her if he is the presidential nominee.

[Roman]

Since Obama has pratically won the nomination, IA with your statements. He needs to have a fighter in his corner who will be about him, the party and the ticket.........

Which, IMO, cancels her out.

I think that having folks like Donna Brazille, and Joe Biden on your side wil help. Old school street fighters who have no problem at all getting down the the mud and staying there if thatis the game one wants to play.

[Roman]

Howard Dean just said that Al Gore had the POTUS stolen from him 40 days before by 5 intellectually bankcrupt Justices.

Wow!

[Roman]

I can see now that this entire meeting will be turned into a circus.

I really hope this can be wrokedout so BO can claim this nomination and we can finally move on.

[Jess]

Ouch! That decision is a shame of the court. One of these days I'm going to read one of the many books written on that decision.

The meeting is going to be an embarrassment. Why would the Ds hold a meeting like this for the whole world to see without having their ducks lined up going in?

[Roman]

Jess, I have no idea.

It already looks like a major CF is in the works.

They should have settled this mess a long time ago.

I also don't think it's fair for the Obama camp to made out to be the unfair ones when the other camp were the ones who agreed to this and are now backing out.

I'm just sick of the whole damn thing, really.

[Jess]

I think he needs a James Carville type person running his campaign. I know Carville isn't in the business any more, but I'm talking about a person who can synthesize his message and is not afraid to respond quickly and in-kind to anything going on.

After the past couple of weeks, the memos from Bill, comments from Wolfson et al and things happening at the Rules meeting today, I don't see anyway that Barack Obama can put her on the ticket. I'm afraid if he did, he would be seen as weak and needing her in order to win.

I'm sick of it too. It's summer and time to end this mess. It really is draining the energy out of the campaign. And, you know what, the Democrats made a rule, stick by it. Florida was a name recognition vote and Michigan didn't even have all the names on the ballot.

[Roman]

You feel that the behavior of some in the Cinton camp has cancelled her out?