Vee

HAHN was so bad from Day 1, I am sorry lol. But the actors were intensely committed, especially Tika and Crystal Fox, and that was notable.

It's not about her going there, or even about whether or not Harris wins Iowa; that is irrelevant. It's about the Selzer poll results historically being a bellwether for the entire Midwest, and how much Harris' excellent campaign and yes, skills as a candidate have connected, particularly with (according to the poll) women and especially older women, who remember Roe and before Roe (and after). That's what the Selzer poll often tells us about a campaign/vote trajectory, and that's why it scares the shít out of the GOP. Selzer has grounds because Selzer simply knows her business in her state and does not get caught up in the pollercoaster games of other outlets. Considering Nate Cohn and others have outright admitted to herding and downplaying/dismissing strong blue numbers for fear of underestimating Trump, and considering what happened in '22, it is entirely likely she knows what she is talking about.

Ex-soap writer Hal Corley (ATWT, AMC) has become a minor political twitter personality. (He has talked the soaps a bit on Twitter from what I've seen at a cursory glance)

Harris is going to Michigan tomorrow. Whoever is complaining about it is just talking out of their áss and should not be immediately given credit for foresight or presumed to be speaking from some more knowledgeable vantage point. I can understand being burnt out by 2016. But that was eight years ago. The GOP has consistently lost elections since; Trump has already lost once. And a lot of this reasoning about why the Selzer poll can't be right (or why Kamala couldn't really have won the debate narrative when she did, or why Puerto Rico won't stick to Trump when it has) sounds identical to the right wing cope rationalizations or dirtbag left nonsense I see all over Twitter. The Selzer poll is a gold standard. Either Selzer has massively missed for the first time in quite awhile (which she doesn't do with Iowa polling), or we're looking at some serious good news. There's also nothing wrong with a Democrat being bold and confident when they think they're going to win. The media tried to dog Obama over and over about this as well as Joe, and they both won despite clucking that they were either 'overconfident' or in Obama's case 'too much of a celebrity'. The alternative campaign strategy here would be some sort of perpetually humble, apologetic defensive crouch - pre-apologizing to media, accepting every bad faith spin thrown at them. And that is not going to win any elections anywhere. We can't live in fear and be preemptively cowed by media, the right or the worst bad faith actors of the left if we want to win. Democrats have done that before, and most times they have they've lost. I understand this kind of positivity is anathema to you re: politics, but this is not the first time we've stared down a win you simply didn't believe was ever going to happen, including four years ago. Trump is not unbeatable; we have beaten him before. If you have to believe the Selzer poll is wrong to keep your own fears in check that's your business, but it's not matching the reality IMO. And if I end up having to eat crow on Tuesday or Wednesday, so be it - I'll do it, it wouldn't be the first time. If we do succeed though, I just hope you will consider too accepting that some of what appears to be happening, actually happened. And that not every right wing spin on social media, or bad faith pundit, or preemptive disaster scenario always automatically becomes valid, serious or has any real impact on the general public outside the immediate radius of its voice. It is okay to win, to know you're winning, to acknowledge it and be happy when you do it. And if we do win this I hope you can find that. If we don't, we'll still both have a lot to learn.

Which is why I think Michelle Obama's pointed remark to women about keeping their vote private if need be was so important. It was a permission structure. Kamala on SNL:

He really does seem defeated here lol:

I'll trust in Michele Val Jean over some randos or people's personal fanfic.

It doesn't surprise me. My mother had to go down to Tijuana and remembers every moment. I happen to think Dobbs but also the Puerto Rico mess and Michelle Obama's key statement to women (your husband doesn't need to know your vote) have been essential this cycle.

Peyton Meyer.

Nice to know that Disney twunk can subsidize himself again beyond his OnlyFans which he later pretended was him getting 'hacked.'

I will talk about the Joe thing more when this is over. Maybe he could've done it, maybe not. Doesn't mean I am any happier with how it happened than anyone else. It was shameful how it went down. But I'm very happy with where we are atm. What the crisis this summer reminded me of, though, was that Joe was haunted by not running in '16 when the party (and Obama) told him not to. He believed he could have beaten Trump then. I think he was right. Imagine that world. Martin takes a break from showing up on the Sunday shows drunk and sullen about Kamala to throw this out there, and he's right:

I'm not pressed about Bob Guza personally. I have plenty of past beef with him but when it comes to events and eyeballs that man knows his business. And in the end, this is MVJ's show and the entire daily writing staff is Black. Speaking of, though: If we can avoid spamming the thread of a Black-centric soap opera with photos of predominantly the white male actors, that's probably a good rule of thumb/taste. 🍵

The idea of JPL and Martha Madison together makes me want to hurl myself into a car crusher.

Pick a white guy. Probably Newsom or Shapiro.

I think if Jason Thompson got roped into playing Shawn (never mind that he now looks far too old for either Billy or Shawn) you'd see him retreat into the same suicide watch autopilot mode he had onscreen for much of his final years at GH under Carlivati, where the writing made him sort of retreat into the fetal position.

Sure they are. (Back "for good" that is.)

I was fairly confident before this, but this is a result absolutely no one expected. Silver seethes:

Holy shít. Some background: The very accurate Iowa Selzer poll has been highly predictive in recent years re: midwest voting across the country. A good result for Trump would be anything from +10 to +15. A good result for Harris or any Democrat would be only being behind anywhere 1 to 8 points. Harris being up in Iowa was considered unlikely. This is the final Selzer poll of 2024, released 4 minutes ago.

Yes, one embedded! Axios has more on the Trump camp's internal anxiety. But to be clear, the Atlantic piece further up the page is an essential read.

An enraged Hugh Hewitt quits the WP during a livestream.