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Predictions of the Results in the Iowa Caucuses


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As many of you already know, the Iowa Caucuses (which are when the first voting takes place in the 2008 primary elections) are on this Thursday (January 3). Given how astute many SON members are regarding politics, I was wondering if anybody would care to predict next Thursday's results (in both parties).

If you wish, you can simply predict the winner in each party's Iowa caucus. Or, you can predict who will finish first, second, third, etc., and also list the percentage of the vote each candidate will receive. Note that you can change your predictions by as late as Wednesday.

Here are my predictions (which may change by Wednesday):

Republican Iowa Caucus:

*Huckabee (35%)

*Romney (32%)

*Thompson (15%)

*McCain (10%)

*Paul (5%)

*Others (3%)

(Note that Giuliani is not actively campaigning in Iowa. Also, McCain is conducting a very limited campaign there. In regards to my prediction, Huckabee once held a very large lead in Iowa. However, he was made several blunders over the past few weeks which have resulted in falling poll numbers.)

Democratic Iowa Caucus:

*Clinton (34%)

*Obama (29%)

*Edwards (28%)

*Others (9%)

(Note that Obama's one-time lead has vanished, as Clinton is again leading in the polls. Ordinarly, Clinton would be in serious trouble in Iowa. However, both Obama and Edwards are splitting the anti-Clinton vote. Another reason why I don't believe that Obama will win is because his support is strongest among young voters, who--in past years--usually do not show up at caucus sites.)

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