JaneAusten

12 minutes ago, DRW50 said:

I noticed that the Washington Post op-ed writer who was gushing over this meeting had little to say about the meeting itself. They're lucky because they will probably still get most of those votes.

https://www.salon.com/2024/05/22/envoy-to-arab-american-flops-at-michigan-meeting-talks-about-gazas-real-estate-potential/

 

I doubt Arab Americans are that dumb. It's easy enough to just skip that race on the ballot. And even then I don't think they lack understanding of the complexity of the issue. But I do know they are not voting for Trump.

9 hours ago, DRW50 said:

There are just a few people I stay on Twitter for, although I am also too addicted to the political turmoil to fully go even when I know I should. Unfortunately, many of the sensible people are gone, and many who are left are just wretched. Some have also clearly had a full breakdown, including a few that I remember as being very different not that long ago. 

I saw somebody who was going on about how it is "nationalist" if you vote based on America instead of what is going on in Palestine. This is one of those talking points I end up assuming is propaganda baked up by the same people who always want to help the far-right win, or those who are so full of nihilism, or they are just so trapped in an online bubble they have absolutely no ability to allow for basic empathy. The idea that you should sacrifice your vote based on a situation that Trump will do nothing to improve (and will likely make it even worse) because of "sending a message" is just incredibly naive, to the point where it leapfrogs into cynicism and a very clear agenda that has nothing to do with peace.

I do think Biden is better off trying for Haley voters, those who won't end up voting for Trump (as many will). I read somewhere he hasn't reached out to her. I don't blame him if so but he doesn't have anything to lose. 

 

Honestly none of those people voted for Biden before so I don't believe what they say matters that much.  And honestly there is very little that even matters about what most others say there either. 

I was watching an episode of Don Lemon's show on Youtube and he had Mehdi Hassan on as a guest. They were talking about Lemon's interview with Musk and Mehdi said he predicted what would happen as Don Lemon admitted many others did too. Mehdi actually complemented him on some of his questions and trying to hold Musks feet to the fire, but that Musk has never responded to challenges with reasonable actions or responses and Musk dumping Lemon was predictable and demonstrates what we all know, he does not nor ever has cared about free speech. All the platform IMO has done is has fully embarrassed people like Musk(there are other "Billionaires" on there) and they look ridiculous. No twitter hasn't failed as predicted but it's no longer a viable platform. It's a step above 4chan, if even that.

Honestly Twitter has become more and more irrelevant. It's really not you know.  I stay on primarily because there are people there who I still follow on there like Rosenburg, Bonier, Tom Nichols, and a few others. I know it's hard, but I try to ignore the rest. I do suggest Spoutible because it's very easy to transition to and it's built up a decent diversity of membership and many news sites are on there too.

5 hours ago, DramatistDreamer said:

 

Sorry about that. You have more backbone than I do. I have stuck with twitter although I use spoutible more and more now.  I updated my post to include the 3 tweets.

Thoughtful thread by Tom Bonier on primary voters who did not vote Trump and it's something Biden=Harris should reach out to.

 

 

@tbonier

·

May 2

 

Debunking the popular theory that Nikki Haley's relatively substantial support in GOP primaries has been due to Dem leaning voters flooding the GOP primary vote, thereby suggesting that Haley's strong showing isn't actually a bad sign for Trump...

 

 

May 2

 

They were not substantially younger than the GOP voters (41% over 65 vs 45% among reg GOPs). They were overwhelmingly white (94% of Inds vs 97% of GOPs), and were actually more likely to be men (51% of Ind GOP primary voters vs 50% of GOPs).

 

@tbonier

·

May 2

 

Every indicator suggests these Independents voting in GOP primaries are more likely GOP voters. They just don't like Trump. If I were the Biden campaign, I would be investing in outreach to any Ind who voted in a GOP primary (or if I was the

@ProjectLincoln

1 hour ago, DramatistDreamer said:

I follow Bouzy on Spoutible and yes, his insights are valuable and his predictions have come to fruition so far.

@JaneAusten Florida seems iffy but talking to my dad, a Fl resident, he thinks, if anything could possibly swing Florida, it would be the abortion rights issue. But yeah, that is a swing for the fences. Then again, so was Georgia a few years ago.

Georgia had organizers. The last time I looked the Florida democratic party was still a mess.  But I do think the media is overestimating Trump.  He's underperformed in primaries and you can't blame everything on democrats voting in republican primaries for Haley when some of these primaries have been closed.

Folks need to spend time not only following Simon Rosenburg and Tom Bonier but Christopher Bouzy. All 3 were right about 2022.  Read his thread here. I am not sure I buy his read on Florida. The democratic infrastructure there is a mess. But who knows.

1 hour ago, DRW50 said:

Unfortunately, I've seen a lot of bad polls again lately, but I agree I don't know how much weight they have. I suppose these days everything is vibes-based. Biden is certainly in a tougher mood than he was last year, which I appreciate, but vibes-wise so many seem to have already shifted to Trump coming back in, to the point where you have various world leaders traipsing to Maralago like he's already in office. I hope there's some slim chance.

Those press dinners should have stayed gone after COVID shut them down. I don't think they have any real importance, but seeing people throw themselves on the ground for their beloved Hamas to agonize over Colin Jost's embalmed jokes just remind me how much the worst of this country blots out any discussion or common sense. 

I follow Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenburg and there have been 2 polls in the last few days that have not been good. Bonier explained why these were outliers.  Most of the other polls have had Biden up.  The CBS poll is up and that came out today which was more in line with others but I don't trust the polling. And you do know the media doesn't report the polls where Biden is up. I don't buy they all want Trump in. I do buy that they are stuck on the horserace and want to make people believe it.  

33 minutes ago, DRW50 said:

I'm still not entirely sure of Biden's campaign (if even a strong campaign could stop what often feels like an inevitable press and public coronation of a shockingly decayed Trump), but I am glad they have avoided media whore Chris Christie, who continues to be bitter and sour over his many failed dreams.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/chris-christie-biden-trump-comments-rcna149533

You're giving the press and media power they no longer have.  And I give more credit to on the ground operatives then people whose time is passing them by.  The WH Correspondents dinner was a joke(it has been in more recent years) but this year felt more like a death nell.  And I'm sorry I know the polling has improved for Biden, I have no faith in any of it. It's been wrong since 2016. And I really hope we're not talking about that skewed CNN poll showing more women voting for Trump. I can believe white women but not women. No fricking way.

5 hours ago, DRW50 said:

Another example of what I was talking about:

 

Good grief a couple of articles. Tell me other than twitter fans and the Beltway - both in all cases out of touch with the mainstream, who is paying attention to them. I have been hearing since Dobbs how women are over this blah blah blah. And it's always men who equivocate. But please put your faith in the Beltway who has been wrong about this issue and most others for years.  

11 hours ago, DRW50 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/08/trump-says-abortion-is-up-to-the-states-declines-to-endorse-national-limit-00151022

Get ready for all the backflips from the "liberal" media about how smart and brave and savvy Trump is, along with the dead end leftists praising him and saying he is more progressive on choice than Biden and the Democrats. 

(I don't really think it will change minds one way or the other - if voters who care about these rights vote for Trump then they are going to find a reason anyway. I'm still disgusted [if not surprised] by his shamelessness and how I know so many, many, many people in the Beltway and supposed progressives will eat out of his hand)

I have not heard one person or outlet praising him for this not one. And it's not a decision. It's a coward's way out and no one is buying it. Certainly, women who are pro choice are not.

In this same video he says he ended Roe - that's enough for me and most pro choice folks know he's a liar. He already said he'd sign a national abortion ban so who cares about this really.

You have to forgive me for always going after the abortion posts because this is a personal issue for me. I am frankly tired of people mostly men by the way diminishing the impact of this.  It made me happy to hear a friends husband who is a true small gvmt conservative said for the first time in years he'll be voting democratic(he voted independent in 2020 and in 2016).  Why - this issue. He says there is absolutely nothing small gvmt about this.

13 hours ago, DRW50 said:

 I do agree with you about polls to a certain extent, but one of the things that really hurts with Biden getting any improvement on certain issues is many seem to always believe the worst of him, trained by nihilism of social media and by his not fitting what they want to worship the way they worshiped Bernie (before they also turned against him). I don't really know how much social media these days is an indicator, but I also feel like some younger people have become more right wing and socially conservative and bigoted. So when I see polls talking about increasing support for Trump among younger people, or among minority groups, it doesn't feel off to me, but the margins do feel too high. 

And it's hard to do that. because Trump and the whole cult surrounding him have been chugging along for 8 years now (and so much of that cult was already building before he ever went down that escalator).

What are you basing the idea about those believing the worst of him? Social Media?  Or are we talking about the same people who believed the worst of Hillary and now Biden and believed the same in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. I honestly see nothing to make me believe that. And black voters going 20 percent for Trump has not been proven by any election to date. None. So are polls more accurate than actual elections now? I honestly think polls should be ignored. Let the campaign worry about that.

Trump is a symptom of all of this ugliness, but he did put gasoline on the fire which has been simmering for decades.

10 hours ago, DRW50 said:

I've never seen anything like it. Ken Buck and Mike Gallagher are very right wing figures yet this no longer matters because now it's all about being a MAGA stunt queen. They both ended up leaving in a way that knocks the House GOP in the chops.

I look at polls out today like the one claiming that Trump is leading by 8% in Michigan or all the polls about how well he is doing with minority voters or young voters, and even as I want to think the polls aren't reliable, I still feel like there is such a disconnect with the reality of the GOP and what the public sees them as being. Helped by a media that is more in bed with them than ever.

What do you choose to believe. Polls or actual elections. I keep hearing how black voters are moving to Trump yet every election we see shows 98% and above of voting for Biden in the primary or in general elections, 93 to 98% of black voters voting for the democrat.

There is work to be done in the Arab American community. We are finally seeing some shifts in Israeli policy - moderation.  I never expected Biden and company to do a huge shift. They can't and should not, but movement. Don't for a second believe Schumer made that speech without acceptance from the White House.

As far as young people, BS.  No way would they move from Biden to Trump. I'm sorry. More likely undecided or third party.

There is work to do with all groups, African Americans, Hispanics, and Young people.  I believe and know they will get there.

By the way many new polls coming out now show Biden moving ahead of Trump in the General election. How many of those polls have you heard about. Follow Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg. That's who I follow who were both right about midterms. They and Chris Bouzy(spoutible) were the only ones who were right.

By the way stop watching MSNBC who is an arm of the Trump campaign from what I hear. I was listening to a local radio station, WCBT 820 AM the progressive station, and a gentleman called in, a black man, saying he is retired and he loves to listen to news.  He chastized Fox and MSNBC, MSNBC in particular because apparently all they do is talk about Trump non stop. I don't know because I don't watch it anymore.

And here is an example of what trash NBC and MSNBC are

NBC hires former RNC chair Ronna McDaniel, who has demonized the press and refused to acknowledge Biden was fairly elected | CNN Business

Disgraceful.  You hire this disgrace of a human being. That says everything about how there is no left in the media just sesationalistic garbage.

3 hours ago, Vee said:

From Simon Rosenberg, notably right while all the pundits mocked him in the midterms and I believe the time before that:

 

AMEN. He and Tom Bonier.

48 minutes ago, DRW50 said:

 

Thank you for posting this.  I have always been a great admirer of hers. She is a progressive but never IMO showboated over it.  She really had no chance in the race but she would have been my choice.  I have a lot of respect for Adam Schiff and I understand why he was the choice, but I will always wish it could have been her. Best of luck to her in her retirement. She will be missed.

I have a difficult time dealing with fatalism and this is what I constantly had been seeing in the media. Trying to turn fascism into a self fulfilling prophecy. I had to turn away from it. Since I have,  I am clearer about what the media and press is today and why so many people have turned against it. And it's not just the right who have created their own, it's the rest of us who can see how cynical and dishonest they have become. 

Nate Silver is done. Who is he now just another in a swarm of cynical social media personalities. He was fired from ABC, kicked out of 538, what does he have left. He's a bitter man who should be ignored. He lost any credibility he MIGHT have had when he behaved like a COVID-19 expert. It was embarrassing and ended his career.

That Reddit thread that was posted in the media thread was an eye opener and it tells me people do know what's happening and what the press and media are doing. I just can't understand it because it's not like despite all of this, these folks or institutions would be trusted in a fascist society. They'd be the first to go.

I choose hope. I'll put my faith in the good people who are still here. We are the majority and it's time we start acting like it and elevating things that matter to us and not allowing the darkness to flood more of the zone. There are many of us working our tails off, reaching out to people. It's why I was so confident about 2022. Either the media lied about abortion or they rigged all of the polling or they really were in shock about how much it mattered. I don't think any of these people are that stupid and that it was the people who run these organizations that pushed yet again a GOP narrative vs the truth. And all those who spread it are complicit.  They don't get a pass and are not to be trusted. We know all that we just have to be smarter. And we have millions of others who want what we want - the new silent majority.

3 hours ago, DRW50 said:

 I saw Peter Welch, a senator from Vermont, parroting Nate Silver's line that Biden was hurt by not doing a Super Bowl interview. That's another example of the narrative becoming reality. 

 

In what world was this reality? Because Welch agreed with that irrelevant loser Nate Silver? Or because a bunch of worthless pundits agreed with Silver? 

I'm honestly shocked at how many people here are discounting everything that has happened to date and things still undecided. Do folks here realize our SCOTUS is due to make a ruling on Mifepristone? Do you understand that that in combination with that idiotic IDF ruling is going to have on top of Dobbs. I stand by what I said. Most people are not paying attention and social media and cable networks with a total viewing audience of less than 5,000,000 viewers does not equal all of the voters. Pundits frankly are irrelevant.

I guess people are just going to continue to believe the polls and the red wave that never happened. Biden is the most underestimated politician in my lifetime. He continues to outperform every expectation but somehow 2024 is the year it won't happen.

It's tiring and maybe that's the point. It's still Dobbs and will continue to be so.  In 2022 we were told women were over our rights being taken away. Every special election has gone for democrats because of - Dobbs. 2022 was going to be the CRIME election while Dobbs was rated by the MEDIA and POLLS as a 7% issue and what happened. It was the leading issue. And in what world are people really paying attention at this point. Trump is underperforming in every primary but he's dominating? Only in the minds of the online hoards and the media who has been wrong for years.  But this year of course their right. Didn't they also pump up Sinema.  And look where she has become. Just another lobbyist. Somehow in the back of my mind her final decision came when her biggest champion, McConnell, decided to step down. Where are she and Manchin? All they will be remembered for are sellouts if remembered at all.

15 hours ago, DramatistDreamer said:

MLK’s popularity was at an all time low before he was assassinated. This is something that Americans in general do not like to admit. His stance on the Vietnam War, as well as his highlighting of America’s lack of will and general hypocrisy regarding diminishing poverty made him very unpopular.  
The ANC is probably a better equivalent of a political organization that once embraced, then abandoned armed struggle because the leaders knew that bombing and shooting were not going to shift anyone (except maybe the most extreme) over to sympathize with them and their struggle. One of the reasons why I mentioned how much in awe I am in MLK and Mandela specifically has to do with their sacrifice and discipline, realizing that few would subject themselves to putting their lives at risk for a greater good. It’s ever more clear how few would take this path.

Gandhi, yes, I know his passive resistance movement was very much the inspiration for the 20th century Civil Rights movement but for me, as a Black person, Gandhi is a bit of …I have some ambivalence where he is concerned. He held some very distasteful views, namely his views on Blacks and women, of which I am both.

Ghandi yes had some very distasteful views although I thought his views on Africans changed as he aged. That belief is controversial. I know he championed womens rights but then didn't change much in respect to women in his private life so who knows. It does sadden me that his vision for a secular democracy in India came to fruition to where is it now with many Hindi Nationalists now in control, spitting on his idea of democracy.

1 hour ago, DramatistDreamer said:

Vice President Kamala Harris gave an evenhanded speech, imo on the Edmund Pettis Bridge about the Israeli Hamas war and what needs to be done. Will her admonitions be heard? I don’t know.
Thinking about all of this and the nature of conflict, particularly armed conflict, it really strengthens my belief that Dr. Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela were extraordinary individuals. King was an unfailing advocate for nonviolent action in the face of constant threats and inhumane treatment. Nelson Mandela, was one of the main proponents for the ANC turning away from armed struggle in the face of the brutality of apartheid. I realize more and more how difficult that must of been and what discipline it must have taken to go down this path. Of course, it took decades and still the ultimate goals have yet to be fulfilled but both movements realized that armed conflict would have made those objectives even harder to achieve.

The speech was extroadinary and obviously designed for this occasion. She said out loud what Biden I believe has wanted to say for months. Couple this with Benny Gantz, Bibi's opponent and current member of the Israeli war cabinet visiting DC and specifically meeting with VP Harris.  Netanyahu has not been invited to DC and refused to sanction or pay for Gantz's visit. Childish.

The non peaceful protests of those men and include Ghandi and many others over the centuries says so much about that strategy. But lets not kid ourselves, all the actions of peace have not worked and many of those involved like Ghandi, MLK, heck even through in Jesus whether you believe in him as the savior or simply Jesus of Nazareth, so many of their own lives ended in tragedy. I do wonder what MLK's trajectory would have been had he lived. Sadly he was not destined to.

1 hour ago, DRW50 said:

The reason I brought this up is not because I think the media has a great hold on the public with abortion conversation (2022 proved that) but because it's another example of how the media has gone out of its way to try to wishcast Trump as mainstream and a sensible conservative for the last 8-9 years. I do think that still has an impact, much as I wish it didn't. There are so many stupid people, and people like Jon Stewart, Bill Maher, Colin Jost, a million NYT/Washington Post reporters, what have you, who are well-paid to be stupid, who parrot both sides, why bother for change mentality.

Oh sorry don't think I was being critical of you posting that information. I think it's valuable to know what these folks are saying but it's not resonating. And on what wavelength do you think Bill Maher, Colin Jost, and even Jon Stewart has influence. I have talked to actual women who vote and are voting in 2024. I am working again with NARAL and am talking to independent and suburban GOP women.  None of what these men are saying represent how most women feel. I guarantee you this has nothing to do with 16 weeks, 20 weeks or whatever, women are not thinking about compromise. They are thinking their freedoms have been taken away period. 

Bill Maher really? Who on earth listens to him about abortion or Colin Jost. No women I know or have talked to. Listen I love Jon Stewart, but this is not the same world he performed in on the Daily Show. People in the millions are not watching Comedy Central for him.

I'm honestly tired of having to defend this issue as important to mostly men who don't understand how women view this. Apparently, that includes people posting here. Good lord even Mika Brezinksi is finally talking about abortion as a healthcare issue and that was a long time coming for her. She finally gets how women view this. 

And just a note. The media was wrong about that election in NY.  My neice lives in that district and said it was never close. Tom Suozzi is a long time resident, respected, and well liked. There was never a chance he was going to lose. And according to her had he run in 2022 he would have won the seat. Holy hell, democrats can win every gosh darn special election, and we are still behind the 8 ball.

3 minutes ago, DramatistDreamer said:

And at this point, these media outlets care very little that they continually get things wrong.

Seriously. Why do people continue to pay attention.  I will never forget the Friday before the 2022 midterms when all Joe Scarborough and his klan were doing on that show was spelling doomsday for the democrats in the midterms and how it was all about crime. And it was all about abortion as it will continue to be.  Is it because it's a womens issue - have no clue. I do know who runs the media so that may very well be the truth.

On 2/20/2024 at 1:49 PM, DRW50 said:

The smile when the NPR hack claims that Trump is behaving "normally" is one of the clearest reminders I've seen of just how dirty and complicit the Beltway is. They are still, after a decade, here to tell us that Trump is normal and in the center.

 

Some of you really need to stop looking at any of the Beltway media as it relates to abortion. 1. They barely talk about it.  2. They pretend that a 16 week ban is viable - exactly what data do they think women are looking at to sacrifice our rights? 

They barely talk about it and when they do it's stupidity like this. Pay attention to elections and ignore these people. And if folks don't think that had an impact on the changes in Wisconsin also they are high. They want to continue to pretend this is not a big issue. It is the number one issue.

Thank you for posting Vee. I have several friends in Wisconsin(I live in Illinois) who have been working their tails off on tis for years. Ben Winkler has been a godsend to Wisconsin and has change the trajectory of the democrats in Wisconsin. Other states that have fallen to GOP tricks should take a lesson. There have been failures along the way and it's been a long road but this was the ultimate goal. Don't let anyone tell you change is not possible. And other states should look at what Winkler did and see what lessons they can learn. Each state is different yes, but I will never believe change is not possible. Michigan is case number 2 to prove that.

1 hour ago, DramatistDreamer said:

Another problem is that the opposition itself in Russia is very fractured. I remember years ago when I first read about Navalny, I was hearing that he had association with people who espoused nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiment, which always made me view him somewhat skeptically but I was never sure whether that was Kremlin manufactured “dezinformatsiya” (and let’s face it, these elements exist in the Russian government, they exist in Ukraine as well) or even if Navalny personally espoused these beliefs. It did make me uncomfortable though. And maybe it might have dissuaded some from uniting as a larger opposition movement.

In movements worldwide, I know that people like to focus on one charismatic leader but it has shown not to work in Russia when it comes to democracy or anything resembling a democratic movement. And there seems to be no signs of coalition politics, at least from the outside.

Yeah I know Navalny had a following but some of his views from years past are really awful and I think the only reason the people in the West embraced him was he was a foe to Putin. Did it even matter that some of his views were shared by Putin and his entourage?

The only real opposition in Russia today is the Communist Party and with that I believe they only hold 125 seats in the Duma out of around 400-450. Most of the remainder are held by United Russia which is the Party Putin is a member of.

Last year when Prigozhin and his contingent were on the march to wherever with alleged designs on overthrowing the current gvmt(who knows), people were celebrating in the West. Prigozhin is as bad if not worse than Putin. What does that say.