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Usually, there's 1-3 favourites who take the lead in the race after the guilds, but this year's Best Picture is so unpredictable.  I'm kind of uncomfortable with Black Panther winning because it got shut out in all the major categories (writing, directing, acting).  Does a movie deserve to win if they didn't even get one nomination on those categories?  For me, it's a no.   And in the technical categories, it didn't get a nomination for Best Film Editing or Cinematography which, IMO, are the two biggest technical awards.

 

I agree with those who said if that you're gonna cut some categories, cut the shorts.  I also like the idea of merging the sound editing and sound mixing. 

 

Here are my predictions:

Best Picture: Roma

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón - Roma

Best Actor: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actress: Glenn Close- The Wife

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali - Green Book

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Screenplay: Green Book – Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly

Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman – Screenplay by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee

Best Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Original Score: Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat

Best Original Song: "Shallow" from A Star Is Born – Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt

 

 

 

 

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I'm not expecting Roma to take BP. I agree that the Foreign Language film Oscar will hurt its chances. 

 

Best Picture: Green Book or some crazy out of left field winner...Vice

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Best Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite

Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman 

Best Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

 

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An interesting thread of active actors who’ve never been Oscar-nominated, which puts the whole Glenn Close/Amy Adams “overdue” narratives in some perspective (in that at least they were invited to the party, not that they aren’t deserving).

 

 

Donald Sutherland 

Jamie Lee Curtis

Ewan McGregor

Cillian Murphy

Guy Pearce

Thandie Newton

Bill Nighy

Idris Elba

Brendan Gleeson 

Michael Sheen

Steve Buscemi

John Goodman

Jim Carrey

James McAvoy

Kevin Bacon

John Cusack

Robin Wright

Kirsten Dunst

 

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Props to you for putting Kirsten Dunst. Her performances in All Good Things and Meloncholia should've been nominated. 

 

Thandie Newton being snubbed for Crash was inexcusable. And some of those names, Donald Sutherland, Robin Wright, Steve Buscemi, Michael Sheen, Ewan McGregor are names I naturally assume have been nominated for something because they do have accolades elsewhere. 

 

I'm never good at these games myself. My mind always goes blank as if no knowledge has ever been occupied.

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That Donald Freakin’ Sutherland hasn’t been nominated is shameful. Basically the whole Ordinary People cast was nominated that year except him.

 

Sam Rockwell was snubbed year after year, and then he was nominated for Three Billboards and won his first time out. Now they’ll name-check him anytime he sneezes in a movie.

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