The Politics Thread

[JaneAusten]

Yeah I don't think it matters. But the media has been the ones playing it up as usual. So hopefully it gets put to the sideline where it belongs.

 

So here is what I am tired of hearing how BLACK PEOPLE are not at all enthused about this election and turnout will be down. Uhm are people crazy. This is one group I could say with confidence will vote. HRC now has 94% of AA support in the recent polling - Obama level. I keep thinking the MSM is trying to depress people into not voting.

Edited September 25, 2016 by JaneAusten

[marceline]

The only group of black people who aren't in this for Hillary are black millennials who bought into Bernie's hearts and flowers routine and even they are starting to come to their senses now that cops are shooting us for sport on a weekly basis. Even Shaun King's crazy ass is voting for Hillary and he once claimed that she wanted to have him killed. Most minorities know that we simply don't have the luxury of a protest vote.

 

Flowers now won't be at the debate. It's amazing how Trump's supporters like to claim that Trump doesn't back down and yet that's all he's done during this campaign.

Edited September 25, 2016 by marceline

[JaneAusten]

So people might remember a couple of weeks ago I asked about Nate Silver. Now people like TPM's Josh Marshall are also wondering what is going on with Silver and his narrative. Well this little piece of info. He basically met with GOP donors a couple of weeks ago and apparently since then a lot of people have somewhat quietly noticed his tone on social media has changed. When Josh Marshall, who I have a ton of respect for is questioning what's up with Nate Silver, I take note.

 

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/295469-nate-silver-gives-gop-donors-a-closed-door-presentation#disqus_thread

 

[marceline]

 

Dammit. This election seems determined to ruin everyone I thought I could respect. First Bernie, now Silver.

[Roman]

well, me personally....I don't think anyone has a clue about how anyone will vote. I feel that HRC will win convincingly. I had to stop looking at polls because the TVMSM has gotten so lazy that instead of doing actual reporting and journalism they sit in NYC or DC and guess as to how a certain ethnic group will vote. as a black american I'm voting for HRC...and have yet to get any phone calls to take a political poll. Also, how do any of us know if the information gathered and giving to the public via polls actually is legit? the 24hr. networks have shown that the only narrative they care about it keeping it close so ratings will be high...which I do predict will tank after the election. 

she may have gotten tired of getting cussed out on Twitter. some of the tweets directed at her were just downright BRUTAL.

I heard that from some clown on MSNBC the other day and laughed HARD. how does he or any of those people know how 40 million people roughly will vote?

[DramatistDreamer]

The last time I got polled by phone for politics was like before the 2000 election. Those pollsters never call, nor do they call anyone I know. These samples seem awfully small...too small to be so predictive, I think.

 

I'm already seeing articles and thinkpieces predicting how high the ratings will be for the first debate. Is that all the media is focused on??

[DRW50]

Absolutely. The media doesn't give a damn whether the world burns, or even if America burns. It's all about the $$$ and about feeling important. 

 

I'm not even bothering with the debate, because Trump has already won. He can get onstage and say he will be putting millions into death camps, and the press will say he showed Hillary that people respect honesty and forcefulness. 

[DRW50]

Another good Politico article (I was reminded of this because of that Flowers fool) about when Hillary was essentially damned in the public eye.

 

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-2016-60-minutes-1992-214275

[Ms. Quartermaine]

I don't think I'm going to watch the debate tomorrow. But I will be checking in here afterwards to see what you guys thought (for those who do watch). As long as Trump stands still on stage and doesn't insult anyone, he'll be declared the winner. And actually, if he does insult someone, he might get praised for telling it how it is. If Hillary raises her voice, coughs, leans on the podium, or wears the wrong outfit, she loses. 

 

It should be about their policies and their previous accomplishments or short comings, but let's face it, that's apparently boring to the general public and to the media. (Well, the policies and accomplishments are). And the lack of policy coverage promotes the idea that neither have plans (or they have minimal plans) which is ridiculous. That may apply to Trump, but Hillary has so many plans that those who actually take the time to research and write about them end up criticizing them because they are too detailed (obviously, there a few exceptions). 

 

I just don't know what to make out of this.

 

Edit: Found this article (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/fashion/hillary-clinton-pantsuit-style-2016-campaign.html?_r=0) on wardrobe in January, titled "How Hillary Ended the Clothing Conversation" and gives props to this outfit: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/01/21/fashion/21UNBUTTONED1-WEB/21UNBUTTONED1-WEB-master768.jpg because no one was even talking about it, and you know that rarely happens. 

 

Edited September 26, 2016 by Ms. Quartermaine

[Eric83]

Hillary and Donald are the most polarizing candidates in modern (post FDR) history. This debate tomorrow isn't changing any minds, it's just providing the media with another week of material to over analyze.

Edited September 26, 2016 by Eric83

[marceline]

I'm not watching either. This isn't really about issues. It's about seeing how the candidates handle pressure and I already know that.

[Ms. Quartermaine]

I was so proud of myself for not checking Nate Silver's forecast much yesterday, but I just did now, and it's basically 50-50. So done. 

[JaneAusten]

He's not legit anymore IMO. It doesn't mean I don't think the race is close but use Daily Kos or TPM as your benchmark. And Silver has been questionable since that meeting he had with GOP donors a few weeks back. Yes he did.

 

Also the polling released today? Ask yourself why polls taken just 2 days ago shows Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin and now she's behind? Polls don't change that drastically in 2 days. Someone challenged Silver on this.

 

The Bloomberg poll now showing it dead even. It showed that Bloomberg changed their target audience, overpolling white male republicans, under polling Obama supporters. This was different from the prior poll then did just 2 days before. If people like Nate Silver are going to use polls consistently for their models they need to make sure each time the poll is taken they use the exact same demographic. If you are changing the voters you are targeting to lopside in one direction, its not equivalent. He doesn't want to see that as a flaw in his model, his choice. I do. The MSM wants this debate to be the biggest ever and the only way to do that is to now make people believe they are tied. And yes I do believe the polling was altered to show this narrative. It doesn't mean the race isn't close, but it means they want a dead heat.

 

New polls I have seen today(state level) are now showing Clinton even in Iowa, ahead in NC, and ahead in Florida(a state I never believed she was behind in - too many latinos).

 

I am telling you FOLLOW @PROPANE_JANE on twitter and it will give you a better perspective on how underpolled minority voters are and have been and how most of the polling controlled by the white media are using likely voters based on 2000 and 2004 numbers for minorities and not the 2008 or 2012 numbers. Anyone who thinks Black voters are less motivated this election than in 2008 and 2012 isn't watching the news or is not paying attention to the black media.

Edited September 26, 2016 by JaneAusten

[Ms. Quartermaine]

I gotta say that Bloomberg poll scared me.

[marceline]

The Princeton Election Consortium has become filled with what they call "538 refugees." Silver's behavior this election has raised flags for more people than I realized. Props to you JaneAusten. You saw what was happening and I dismissed it.