JaneAusten

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About JaneAusten

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  1. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

     
    I hate to tell you but your credibility is lacking when you reference Breitbart. And seriously do you really think the Trumpkins minds are changed? Who do you think is favoring his tweets? Why does favoring a tweet matter anyway? You really get yourself worked up over things that are not going to change. I tend to be a pessimist by nature, but there are just some things that really go beyond the scope of reasonableness.
     
     Everyone pretty much knows NAFTA has been a mixed bag. It's not all bad. And let her talk about her role as first lady as being the champion for getting Children's healthcare passed. Or how Clinton walked out of office with a surplus or how wages grew more during his administration then they had in 35 years.
     
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  2. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

     No questions about emails other than a follow-up by Holt to Trump's nonsense about releasing his taxes if HRC releases her 33,000 deleted mails. She finally answered it in a few words that sounded fine and moved on. I am glad her team finally knows how to handle it.
     
    It's clear Trump thought he was going to be able to get away with how he ran over everyone in the GOP debates. I thought Holt did a decent job and while he didn't fact check he did probe further with Trump when he didn't answer the question or babbled on. I thought the Birther stuff really caught him and I would have thought his campaign would have worked on a better response for him than the babbling he did. The deflection to HRC didn't even work IMO because I doubt 99 percent of the people watching knows who Sydney Blumenthal is.
     
    Psst Roman: I agree with you on Chuck Todd
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  3. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    Well he'll be gone by tomorrow. Good riddance to Rudy and his decaying teeth
    He already had his mind made up before the debate. That's not undecided.
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  4. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    I have to laugh. All the complaints about HRC's coughing, and I didn't see her take one sip of water while Trump was gushing water down by the glassful
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  5. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    With Trump being a TV personality I was worried about image. Remember the verdict on the Kennedy/Nixon debates from those who watched it on TV vs Radio.
     
    And for all the gushing Quartermainefan does about Trump, he looked unhinged tonight. He tried to dominate but was shut down or rambled with stupidity when he asked for extra time. For all the complaints about HRC's lack of charisma, she was poised, thoughtful, humorous, and comfortable. And for Ms. Quartermaine, she looked beautiful. That red suit, I'll now call it her power suit, worked for her.
     
    So will Trump show for Debate number 2?
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  6. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    Carl I don't see anyone in the media awarding him anything. Maybe Fox. But this was a disaster.
     
    What impressed me the most. Obviously HRC is knowledgable. But on the stage she stood equally. The visual side by side really worked to her advantage. He actually kind of looked unbalanced next to her.
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  7. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    In terms of changing the direction of an election they have not mattered. That's factual. Romney beat Obama in the first debate and leveled the race out but that bounce only lasted a couple of weeks(and before the next debate happened Obama was back ahead). I think from reading articles the only race changing debate was Reagan/Carter in 1980.
     
     
    New polling(a crazy day)
    ■NBC: CLINTON +7
    ■MONMOUTH: CLINTON +4
    ■ECONOMIST: CLINTON +4
    ■MARIST: CLINTON +7
    ■AP: CLINTON +6
    ■PEW: CLINTON +7
     
    New Rueters/IPSOS poll has Clinton +4 in Florida
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  8. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    When I hear polling numbers skewed toward Trump I keep wondering where all these voters are coming from because aside from non college educated white males, Trump is losing every other demographic and he's even trailing Romney's numbers in that demographic. Hillary wins women, college educated white males, African Americans, Latinos(the last 2 by Obama margins) and every other demographic so I am not really sure how this leads to a Trump win. I remember Ohio being called for Romney the day before in 2012 and Obama winning it by 2 percentage points.  So unless voter turnout is really low(and no I do not believe it will be Sorry and I think minority voters have even more at stake and know it) I just can't fathom it.
     
    As for the debate I don't think it's going to change how anyone feels. I don't buy that there are a zillion undecided and they are going to be swayed. Debates really have never made a difference other than in the short term. It might help confirm peoples decisions to vote the way they already are but in terms of swaying, no way. And we all know the media is going to declare Trump the winner, I am sure the scripts have already been written.
     
    CSpan by the way is going to do real time fact checking as the debate is going on for people who are interested.
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  9. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    He's not legit anymore IMO. It doesn't mean I don't think the race is close but use Daily Kos or TPM as your benchmark. And Silver has been questionable since that meeting he had with GOP donors a few weeks back. Yes he did.
     
    Also the polling released today? Ask yourself why polls taken just 2 days ago shows Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin and now she's behind? Polls don't change that drastically in 2 days. Someone challenged Silver on this.
     
    The Bloomberg poll now showing it dead even. It showed that Bloomberg changed their target audience, overpolling white male republicans, under polling Obama supporters. This was different from the prior poll then did just 2 days before. If people like Nate Silver are going to use polls consistently for their models they need to make sure each time the poll is taken they use the exact same demographic. If you are changing the voters you are targeting to lopside in one direction, its not equivalent. He doesn't want to see that as a flaw in his model, his choice. I do. The MSM wants this debate to be the biggest ever and the only way to do that is to now make people believe they are tied. And yes I do believe the polling was altered to show this narrative. It doesn't mean the race isn't close, but it means they want a dead heat.
     
    New polls I have seen today(state level) are now showing Clinton even in Iowa, ahead in NC, and ahead in Florida(a state I never believed she was behind in - too many latinos).
     
    I am telling you FOLLOW @PROPANE_JANE on twitter and it will give you a better perspective on how underpolled minority voters are and have been and how most of the polling controlled by the white media are using likely voters based on 2000 and 2004 numbers for minorities and not the 2008 or 2012 numbers. Anyone who thinks Black voters are less motivated this election than in 2008 and 2012 isn't watching the news or is not paying attention to the black media.
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  10. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    So people might remember a couple of weeks ago I asked about Nate Silver. Now people like TPM's Josh Marshall are also wondering what is going on with Silver and his narrative. Well this little piece of info. He basically met with GOP donors a couple of weeks ago and apparently since then a lot of people have somewhat quietly noticed his tone on social media has changed. When Josh Marshall, who I have a ton of respect for is questioning what's up with Nate Silver, I take note.
     
    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/295469-nate-silver-gives-gop-donors-a-closed-door-presentation#disqus_thread
     
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  11. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    Yeah I don't think it matters. But the media has been the ones playing it up as usual. So hopefully it gets put to the sideline where it belongs.
     
    So here is what I am tired of hearing how BLACK PEOPLE are not at all enthused about this election and turnout will be down. Uhm are people crazy. This is one group I could say with confidence will vote. HRC now has 94% of AA support in the recent polling - Obama level. I keep thinking the MSM is trying to depress people into not voting.
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  12. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    Yeah this is going to backfire bigtime. Hillary's popularity and sympathy numbers soared when Bill's liason's became public. Plus it's not going to fluster her one bit. She sat through 11 hours of being grilled by the GOP and looked refreshed while Gowdy looked like he was run over by a train.
     
    It's funny. The Cuban invite must have really gotten to Trump. She should have invited the Kahn's and Pastor Timmons also.
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  13. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    That was well done but frankly I can never look at the NYT the same way after how they lambasted her for the last 18 months and gave Trump a free pass.
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  14. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    I somewhat agree with you but this is different IMO. This isn't about policy differences this is about genuine decency, respect, tolerance and on the opposite side fear mongering. I have a real problem despite policy differences(and they do exist) that race baiting and bigotry is now being made acceptable and excused using the fact we have become too politically correct and that even with policy differences a very high percentage of people in this country are ok with that. Ignoring fear mongering and hate rhetoric enables it and staying quiet or excusing it is the same thing the "good" Germans did under Hitler. And those who feel this doesn't or can't apply to them or is no big deal, should remember this
     
    First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
    Because I was not a Socialist.
     
    Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
    Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
     
    Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
    Because I was not a Jew.
     
    Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
     
    This by the way is exactly whats happening in Russia
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  15. JaneAusten added a post in a topic The Politics Thread   

    It scares me to think people like Quartermainefan above think this is just about political differences. Blinded to the divisiveness he exploited for his benefit.  Not only have those differences been highlighted and exploited they have led to an increase in hate crimes, blatant bigotry which I think we all hoped had disappeared from the mainstream and now it's ok. Those who believe this is just about political differences need to take a close look as to why so many are terrified of this man being elected. I may have disliked George Bush and believe his administration responsible for a lot of what we are still dealing with today, but I wasn't afraid. Imagine how the Jews felt with the election of Hitler and the gradual movement to curb their rights. People who can't see this coming are fooling themselves and if Trump were to win, this movement would escalate even moreso all over Europe. And yes I think extinction is possible because terrorism would be on the increase, we'd end up unleashing a nuclear bomb or two in the middle east, and then have several aimed at us and those 1.5 billion muslims around the world, including countries which doe have nuclear power(Pakistan) would take aim at us.
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